Vance Crowe Podcast › Guests › Lacy Hunt

Lacy Hunt

Economist, Executive Vice President of Hoisington Investment Management Company

On the podcast

Lacy Hunt has appeared on the show twice.

What is deflation? U.S. Treasuries expert Lacy Hunt explains how money's buying power changes.

2020-04-18 · First appearance, April 2020

Economist Lacy Hunt Returns! Disinflation, the velocity of money and where the economy is headed

2021-05-24 · Second appearance; became one of the show's most-viewed episodes

On the record

In May 2021, when consensus commentary was warning of runaway inflation, Hunt argued on the show that excess debt and falling money velocity were disinflationary forces, and that Fed asset purchases were creating an overvalued bond market rather than durable growth.

In their own words

“The Federal Reserve has been buying $40 billion of mortgages a month. And they have created a bubble... this is a very overvalued situation.”May 2021, on the Vance Crowe Podcast, on the Vance Crowe Podcast

“The world is in what I would call a debt drought... last year we had a record rise in debt to GDP globally... when you take on more debt, the amount of GDP created per dollar of debt declines... economists call that the marginal revenue product of debt.”May 2021, on the Vance Crowe Podcast, on the Vance Crowe Podcast

“In other words, you gotta have a stream of future earnings and we need to discount that future stream to today's stock's net present value. Well, I don't see a stream of earnings with the bitcoins.”May 2021, on the Vance Crowe Podcast, on the Vance Crowe Podcast

Where this conversation traveled

Moments in later episodes where Lacy Hunt's ideas and work resurfaced, drawn from the show's transcripts.

Hunt won "most viewed episode" in the show's year-end awards; Vance noted he is a guest who does few interviews and called him one of the most eloquent voices on the show. Listen →

2021 Vance Crowe Podcast Awards, December 2021

Returning guest Ben Anderson built on Hunt's prior lumber-price and inflation predictions when discussing his own economic outlook.

Ben Anderson, June 2021

If you valued this conversation

Ben Anderson — picked up Hunt's inflation and lumber-price predictions in a later episode
John Jennings — debated the same inflation-vs-deflation question from a different investment-analysis angle
Phil McAlister — gave a contrasting take on inflation and the broader economy

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I spoke with Vance Crowe on the Vance Crowe Podcast. The full conversation and transcript are here: https://articulate.ventures/podcast/guest/lacy-hunt

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