Conservative Writer Julie Kelly on Covid Data Gaps and Civil Liberties in March 2020
About this episode
Conservative writer Julie Kelly joins Vance in the early days of Covid-19 lockdowns to lay out her data-driven skepticism of the official case-count picture, arguing CDC influenza-like-illness data suggests the virus was circulating in the US weeks before official detection and that the true peak may be earlier than assumed. The conversation ranges from why her former GMO-defense allies turned on her after 2016, to the civil-liberties shock of overnight stay-at-home orders, to the $2 trillion stimulus package and fears of a "great depression era economy," to interstate tension as states like Florida and Texas try to keep New Yorkers out. Both agree the deepest risk isn't the virus alone but the political opportunism and authoritarian reflex it's unleashing, closing on the idea that fast-moving pandemics now compete with fast-moving ideas and open discussion.
“I began to realize that I had really strong opinions about how things were going. And yet if somebody were to probe any one of those opinions... I wouldn't actually have knowledge of what's going on there... I have a generalized understanding, but not really. And I found myself getting in a position where I would hear somebody having a different opinion than me and get angry with them.”
“I watched a video by a guy that does statistics... the model that was the scariest was when you intermix all these communities and you keep having communities where there's one community that's a hotbed for outbreak and people are going and coming from there.”
“The day the order went into place, when I went to bed at night and I was free to leave my house, and then in the morning, I'm no longer allowed to do that, it really hit me. The first amendment is now gone... and it only really took about three weeks of fear to get most people to agree with it. And maybe that's the right decision, but maybe it's not.”
Key moments
- Vance recounts backlash from former allies threatening him ("the blood of the people that will die will be on your hands") for booking Julie, setting up the mob dynamics of pandemic discourse (mob, institutions).
- Julie explains how a former left-right alliance defending biotech/GMOs fractured after the 2016 election, turning erstwhile allies into critics.
- Julie details CDC influenza-like-illness data showing a spike in flu-like symptoms with negative flu tests in early February, suggesting Covid was already spreading before formal detection.
- Discussion of the $2 trillion stimulus bill, unemployment claims spiking past 3 million, and Julie's argument that lockdown severity may not be backed by adequate data (money, institutions).
- Vance describes the personal shock of an overnight stay-at-home order taking away his freedom to leave his house, framing it as the First Amendment effectively suspended by fear within three weeks (trust).
- Vance's line that historically, disease crises produce authoritarian father-figure leaders, and that fear now channels into "praying to the state" instead of God (trust, institutions).
- Julie cites early antibody-study estimates (up to 6 million Americans possibly already infected and recovered) as evidence the mortality rate calculation may be overstated due to data gaps.
- Discussion of interstate conflict — New York bragging about being "the front door" for infections while Florida, Texas, and New Jersey try to bar or quarantine New Yorkers.
- Vance references a Chinese province border-checkpoint story and a "Three Blue One Brown" statistical model showing intermixing communities spread infection fastest, warning this dynamic could produce mob-style scapegoating (mob, bubbles).
Notable quotes
“If you have her on there, the blood of the people that will die because of it will be on your hands.”
“The day the order went into place... I'm no longer allowed to do that, it really hit me. The first amendment is now gone... it only really took about three weeks of fear to get most people to agree with it.”
“Many of the dictators that have happened in the modern age have all come about when there was a disease around... instead of people praying to God, they're now praying to the state.”
“If you start having this country think there are some people that are diseased and some people that aren't... that's where conflict really starts happening and violence happens.”
Predictions made in this episode
- Data gaps and mishandled messaging around Covid will drive states into open conflict, with places like Florida, Texas, and New Jersey actively barring or quarantining residents of hard-hit states like New York.
- A second wave of Covid will hit later in the year (fall/winter), and it's an open question whether the public will comply with renewed lockdown measures after having already made sacrifices once.
Full transcript
Read the full transcript (word-for-word, with timestamps)
Coronavirus Perspective [00:00:00] As the crow flies on the Vance Crow podcast,
Vance Crowe [00:00:05] Julie Kelly, welcome to the podcast.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:00:09] Hey Vance, thanks for having me.
Vance Crowe [00:00:12] So I've been doing this series. I've done about 11 interviews, and my goal has been that I think the coronavirus is going to kick open the doors of the Overton window. That the ideas that once we're never allowed into society or, or would've been very, very difficult to push in because of the fear, because of the danger, because of all kinds of different reasons. The Overton window is wide open and society's gonna change for better or for worse. And so the thing that I thought I could do during this time when my wife are, are quarantining ourselves or keeping ourselves out of regular society, is sit down and talk with people that have all different kinds of perspectives about how the virus is playing out, what the ramifications are from a health perspective, political, industrial. And so you were of course, somebody that I'm very interested in because you almost always have a different take. You don't care so much what society thinks. But I announced that we were gonna do this podcast and on Twitter, and about 12 hours later, a group of people started saying, you should not have Julie Kelly on there. If you have her on there, the blood of the people that will die because of it will be on your hands. And I was like, what in the hell is going on here? So what is going on here, Julie? Why are people reacting so strongly to the things that you're saying?
Coronavirus Perspective [00:01:32] Well, let's be clear who is saying that. So these are former allies of mine when we were all together defending biotechnology and GMOs and taking on the phony organic industry. So this was pre November of 2016. So this was a really unusual, and this is how you and I obviously connected. This was kind of an unusual alliance of scientists, mostly from the left and then farm and ag interests mostly on the right, who kind of converged to defend biotechnology and take on the organic industry. Then Donald Trump won in November or of 2016, some of us who voted for Donald Trump became the enemy of our one-time allies. And now they were still on the outs with them. And so this is a small group of these experts, scientists who think that they know everything, don't wanna hear a different opinion from somebody who voted for somebody and supports the president that they detest. So those were the handful of critics on, on your thread yesterday.
Vance Crowe [00:02:39] So it was interesting because a few months ago, this guy named Yosha Bach, who I interviewed before, was talking about coronavirus, and he was doing it so much, he's a pretty good friend of mine. I wrote him and said, Hey, Yosha, I think you're, you're, the virus has infected your mind. I don't think you, you should be talking about this as much. And he was completely open with me. He was like, okay, tell me about your point of view. And then a few months later, as Coronavirus has played out in much the way that he was predicting, or at least the fear of it, is, I, I apologized to him. I was like, Hey, I didn't know what I was saying there. Like, you clearly knew something. I'm glad you were sounding an alarm and people should have done things differently. And he was like, oh, I never had a problem with you telling me something different than what I believe. Like I thought maybe you knew something about the world that I didn't. And that's exactly what I think about with you. So you have had a contrary take on coronavirus, but give people just a general overview of what you're saying that that seems different than what maybe the mainstream view is.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:03:39] So I think that, well, first of all, I started looking at some of the data about, I think my biggest concern, and it's still a huge gap in the information and the data that we have, is how many cases of coronavirus in the United States from mid-January to March 1st when the widespread testing began, it's impossible to believe given how much this was spreading around the world. And the first confirmed case was in Washington State confirmed on January 21st. It's impossible to think that all of a sudden these cases started arriving on March 1st. That's a huge gap in the data. So I started questioning, why don't we have some predictions? You know, I followed climate science for a long time. They can model temperatures from 1876, but we can't have any case predictions in mid-February. So I went to the CDC, they have really some great data there, and I started to look at what's called influenza-like illness. So these are symptoms that the CDC attracts every year, actually by week it's really drilled down data. And so I started to look at,
Vance Crowe [00:04:51] And those are the cases that are like flu, but they can't name it as flu,
Coronavirus Perspective [00:04:56] Right? So they, so their symptoms of flu, people who go to the doctor or their healthcare provider complaining of flu-like symptoms. Now we know coronavirus and the flu mimic each other in terms of symptoms, right? There's a little bit discrepancy now with some stomach issues, but for the most part they are identical. So I wanted to look at now in the description of flu-like is what you just said. So there are symptoms that mimic the flu, but for the most case, they're not diagnosed as either influenza A or B. During the first few weeks of February, there was a huge spike nationwide of people going to healthcare providers complaining of flu-like symptoms. I saw the testing chart, 70% of the people who tested for the flu virus during that period tested negative. I also had my own daughter who's very ill in New York State. She goes to college in New York in February. Same symptoms, chest issues, you know, like trouble breathing, went to go get a flu test. It was negative. We heard this a lot and the article that I wrote, and I'm not bragging, but it's been shared about 350,000 times just in the past week because it resonated with people that people were sick. Same flu symptoms, test negative for flu. So at any rate, I'm going right off of data. So gaps in data and the data that might support the fact that Coronavirus has been here, that there's a small chance that at least the nationwide peak is behind us instead of ahead of us. So that was the suggestion in my article.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:06:29] I didn't make it up, I didn't just base it off my daughter being sick. I mean, these are numbers that are available on the CDC website. So I'm also a data driven person too. And there's, and so that's really where this all began. Plus the background of how this is devastating our economy, individual lives, families, professions, small businesses, taking the, taking all of this into account,
Vance Crowe [00:06:54] It's interesting because the thing that you're describing about your daughter and about people getting these flu, like my good buddy Jared McDaniel back in, I don't know, early February, got so sick that like we have general talk, like we talk every single day with a group of people and he just fell off the map. And like is very unlike him, he was like in pretty good shape. He jogs every day and he just stopped everything. And, and I've heard it from several other people that they got really, really sick. And I think that there's a lot of people that in some ways they think, my God, I hope that's the only, that's, that's what Coronavirus was. 'cause I got through that and I don don't wanna, wanna do it again. And it was really, really bad. Why does the idea that the peak happened at a different time, why does this concern other people? What are you reading into why, why they have such a strong aversion to what you're saying?
Coronavirus Perspective [00:07:44] I don't know. Because I think that there are people on the left, right? So this is, this is what the left wants they
Vance Crowe [00:07:51] Want. And to be clear, you, for people that don't know you, you are a conservative writer, well known in conservative political circles. You talk about all kinds of political issues, everything from climate change and organic, but also the, the Trump impeachment trials, all those things like very in, in depth. And so let the world is left right in in a lot of ways for your world.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:08:12] Yes. Sorry, I I shouldn't say left. I, but I think that, and, and I, but you raise a good point. So following scientific activism and following data and charts, et cetera, is not new for me. So that's how you and I originally connected is I started really diving into biotechnology. I started really diving into climate change. I'm prepared for any criticism after questioning climate science and being targeted by the climate cabal. Nobody is more unreasonable than those people. So this is not something that's new for me, actually, it's, it, it's kind of interesting to get back to that instead of the Mueller investigation or FSA gate or whatever. So, but the, this is, if you look at the agenda of say the far left Democrat Democratic party, progressive politicians, this is kind of the scenario that they want. It's certainly what the climate ca all wants, right? So they want the stock market to tank, they want control over people's lives. They want people reliant on government, which we see now with this, you know, tri $2 trillion stimulus package, which we're going to see more of that. So this is really a way, I think, for them to leverage a crisis and to get saw this reflected in the house, Democrat, Nancy, they wanted to get through provisions of the Green New Deal. They wanted new subsidies for renewable energy. They wanted a whole Christmas tree list of, or Christmas list of far left progressive policy agendas that had nothing to do with trying to mitigate the severe economic damage that people are suffering based on these shutdowns across the country.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:09:57] So there's a huge political agenda behind this too.
Vance Crowe [00:09:59] Yeah, I mean, I, I don't know that I necessarily think that people wanted the stock market to collapse, but I do think that people are saying, Hey, now that we have the open checkbook, let's just go ahead and write the check for all these other projects that we wanted. And I think for somebody like me that's just sitting on the outside, I don't like politics. I, I actually actively avoid these kinds of conversations. But you see a word like 2 trillion and it becomes like that things are make believe that, that, that, because like, I don't even know how you count to a trillion. Is it a thousand billion? Is it a million billion? I I don't actually know. And maybe other people can laugh at me because I don't know these numbers, but we're talking about numbers that are so large that how could you possibly in the two weeks or the three weeks that led up to coronavirus, you write a document that says this money is going to the right places to help mitigate a disaster. So talk a little bit about what, what is in this package, this $2 trillion package.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:11:04] So I mean, obviously it goes to state and local governments. I mean, we saw a huge unbelievable jump in unemployment claims, 3.2 million people filing for unemployment. That's only part of the reflection of people who are out of work right now. So it's sending also checks to individuals, but it's kind of based on your income. So I think if you make over a hundred thousand dollars a year, you're not gonna get any kind of compensation from the government. And so it's most of the bill I'm not a fan of, just because I don't think that what we've done necessitates these huge costly government fixes at every level. I mean, so this is only at the national level. Look at states, local governments, I mean, we are just at the tip of the iceberg of what the huge consequences of these shutdowns will, will cost. Do you, you
Vance Crowe [00:11:55] Think more stimulus packages will be signed and put into law more, more money will be printed
Coronavirus Perspective [00:12:01] Probably because this is only going to get worse. I mean, if this trajectory of unemployment claims continues and these severe lockdowns not only continue, but they spread across the country, you're looking at at least probably 10 million people who will file for unemployment by the middle of April. That doesn't include small business, but you know, little small businesses or your neighborhood restaurant or bar pub or whatever, that will completely shut down little, I mean, small businesses across the country, they had a survey come out yesterday. One third of Americans have already been either know somebody in their family or are already suffering a layoff or a firing a dismissal because of these consequences. That's only going to increase. We are put, we are putting ourselves into a great depression era economy. What are the health consequences of that? What are the health consequences of these lockdowns? I mean, there's so many unknowns and variables. So for people like who were on Twitter yesterday, for scientists who are so incurious about the missing data, about data that might support something that they don't believe and to refuse to consider the severe harsh consequences for every American based on what we've been told based on sketchy data, has nothing to do with science. That's all politics.
Vance Crowe [00:13:27] One of the things that's become very clear to me, something that I I maybe even before the coronavirus came out was I kind of felt like I had a really good filter for propaganda. I was like, I know when that side is trying to get me to do something, and I know when that side is trying to get me to do something. And now in all of this coronavirus stuff, I began to realize that I had really strong opinions about how things were going. And yet if somebody were to probe any one of those opinions, a any one of them, I wouldn't actually have knowledge of what's going on there. Like I have a generalized understanding of how coronavirus impacts the lungs. I have a kind of a knowledge about what percentage of people die if they get it, but not really. And I found myself getting in a position where I would hear somebody having a different opinion than me and get angry with them. And one of the things that I've learned over time is that if you get angry with somebody over their opinion, oftentimes it's because you don't, you don't have a place of knowledge that you're coming from. You have an opinion that's been given to you and it's being threatened. Now, there are some people, doctors that are saying, I am watching people die of coronavirus is very serious. I want people to stay at home. I'm not saying they are not correct in their opinion on, on those things, but me personally, a guy, you know, sitting in his house for the last two weeks, I probably should have strong opinions loosely held, you know, where I'm willing to give them up and, and let them go. Do you feel the same way?
Coronavirus Perspective [00:15:01] I I do in a way. There are people who I really respect and like as people on our kind of this side of the political aisle who have a totally different opinion than I do, who have kind of bought into this panic porn as they call it, about coronavirus. I under, I, I kind of understand where they're coming from because it's scary. I mean, this is a very scary thing. And when you stand up and question it, you are automatically, okay, will you want grandma to die? Because you are on, you're questioning this data, you're questioning the measures that are being taken to mitigate this so you don't care about old people. So it, it's preposterous. But I, yes, so, but I do think that we all suffer from confirmation bias. Everybody has that. So you have an opinion, you look for evidence that's going to support that. The problem is right now that the people who are most panicked over coronavirus, who want these stringent nationwide lockdowns for who knows how long, simply don't have the scientific data to back up the claim that number one is necessary or effective. Number two, that it could completely backfire in the fall because as we isolate people, we're not giving people, and we can talk a little bit about the antibodies studies that are going to be needed. You are not putting healthy people with antibodies into the greater public. So you can kind of develop that natural herd immunity to something like this as it's going to, this virus is going to, you know, somehow contort itself, if it does.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:16:36] So there's a lot of unknowns about the future. How is this going to impact then the second wave, which Dr. Fauci has already talked about, which we know is coming, which happened with the swine flu. It happens with these viruses. Have we shortchanged ourselves by taking these extreme measures, not promoting people away to get healthy, actually, is there a way that we are, we are depressing people's immunity by keeping them at home, by not even allowing them to go outside any kind of physical activity. Health gyms, you know, are shut down all over the place. They're eating more, they're more inactive, they're drinking more. How does this affect people's meal? I mean, there's a whole lot of variables that I think, and
Vance Crowe [00:17:18] This is the conversation we are not having right now, right? Because what, what you see having happening is to say, unless you agree with the absolute shutdown and, and that it should be enforced, you are bad. Like you are a bad person. And I, that's, that's like the fundamental part of this whole podcast series that I've been working on, which is it only benefits us to have different ideas and people that are saying, Hey, let's not run all the way with this. Like, and I can remember, so my wife and I went into whatever you call it, seclusion, social distancing, maybe a week, week and a half before everybody else did because we were watching this and my wife's pregnant. So I was really concerned about this. I was kind of in favor for the first time in my life, and I'm a pretty hardcore libertarian to say like, you know, I really wish they would tell those other people to do what I'm doing. But the day the order went into place, when I went to bed at night and I was free to leave my house, and then in the morning, I'm no longer allowed to do that, it really hit me. The first amendment is now gone. Like it's, and and it only really took about three weeks of fear to get most people to agree with it. And maybe that's the right decision, but maybe it's not. And that like, where's the discussion about how dangerous it is to hand over to people that I don't, I never pay attention to local elections. And now these people decide whether my wife and I can leave our house.
Vance Crowe [00:18:50] I'm scared of coronavirus, and yet I don't want somebody else to have that power. I don't think that's wrong to have that sensation.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:18:58] I it's not wrong. It's necessary because, you know, this is brought out the inner tyrant in every licensed official from Republicans to Democrats, from governors to homeowners associations, presidents. I mean, we are dealing with this now. They took away the pool. I mean, this is a nothing, they took away outdoor pool furniture because that transmits coronavirus. You're in, it's in the sun. It's been in the high eighties here. There are legitimate studies that show that UV ray and humidity kill the virus. So little piece of control over this. And that is not just con condition. Now that's the frightening trajectory of this is that in the climate, people have tried this for years. I know I keep going back to climate, but there's a lot of similarities. This is what they've tried to use climate science to do as well. And so this is, you know, to them not, I don't wanna say a gift, but they're certainly exploiting it as much as they can. So you're right, our instinct as Americans is what if the government tells us not to do it? We, we wanna do it unless we have a really good reason why we shouldn't for our own individual sake and the common good. Those are all fair considerations. And
Vance Crowe [00:20:16] You can completely understand why a local official would want this power. And it's not necessarily because they're evil and they, and they, you know, want to, it's that they wanna make it easier, right? They, they, they see that it's much easier if somebody has the authority and the power to say, you there, quit doing what you're doing. And I don't know. But the way it's been meted out, I don't know how it is where you are. There's a lockdown order, there are a lot of people still going to work in my neighborhood. They're, they're still running around and doing things. So you have this weird situation where the government is actually saying, you guys are cool to keep earning a living and everybody else isn't like, this is a very unfair system and it's going to breed resentment. You have a month of this where there are some people out with a, a, a license from the government to be out and about and other people have to become dependent. It brings up real problems.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:21:12] It does. And even as you're starting to look at the unemployment data, the people who are hardest hit, as we would imagine are low wage workers. People who are making under $50,000 a year. So of course these are people in the service in industry who are being completely decimated and who knows how long until that comes back. So you're right. So this is gonna cause all kinds of class conflicts and, you know, fam conflicts within families and communities. But I, I do wanna raise one point about the isolation. You and I talked about this a little bit. When you have governors as diverse as Andrew Cuomo in New York and Ron DeSantis down here in Florida now questioning the logic and the effectiveness of shutting down schools and colleges and putting healthy kids in with vulnerable populations, locking them in with their families for weeks on end. They both now are questioning that. So what does that mean now? Well, it's too late now because there was no science, there was no evidence, there was nothing to back up. We literally went from social distancing and not staying six feet away from people staying six feet away from people for who were ill or expressing symptoms for a prolonged period of time. We went from that to total lockdowns in a matter of 72 hours without any data or science or even common sense to back that up. And so now here we are, but what do we do now? How do you start walking this back? It's
Vance Crowe [00:22:41] Almost impossible. Yeah. And, and I I, I've, so what is your family personally doing? How are you guys responding to the disease? Is is, I mean, you're, you're down. If for anybody that's not watching this on video, you have these beautiful palm trees. I could see, I think water behind you, it, you're down in Florida.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:22:58] Yes. So we're down in southwestern Florida. We've been here for a few weeks. Luckily we had somewhere to, I, we live in suburban Chicago, so luckily we were able to escape down here. My daughter attends Syracuse University in New York, upstate New York. So they canceled the rest of the semester. So she's here. So she's home for five months now, which in a way is a huge gift because pretty soon she's gonna, you know, leave the nest. And so it's nice to have some extra time with her, but what is she gonna do for five months? I have a high daughter in high school. We're still waiting to hear if she's gonna be going back to school at all. So we're down here, we're seeing friends. I mean, the restaurants are closed. There's still some, a lot of stores open down here. They haven't done any kind of statewide lockdown or local lockdown where we are. I, I suspect that my daughter already had it, so I feel at least relief for her. And so
Vance Crowe [00:23:52] Are you worried about getting it?
Coronavirus Perspective [00:23:56] I now I don't wanna answer that because as soon I, I I'm not, because I mean, I think I, I'm just not as worried, I think as a lot of people are.
Vance Crowe [00:24:09] I, I mean,
Coronavirus Perspective [00:24:09] So, which means I'll probably tomorrow, but
Vance Crowe [00:24:11] I, I mean I I, I applaud that I, I've been in a situation where there's too much ambiguity for me. So for me, I told you, you know, Ann's pregnant and I like, for me it was like, I don't really know what the consequences are. And we are in a position where we can, you know, bunker into our houses, but there are a lot of people that can't. And, and I don't know what that means because if you lock these people in their houses, you have to support them in the same way that I think that if, if what Yeah, I, I think there's just, I think that you're correct in this in a big way about we have to be able to have these discussions about how are we as a society going to handle this using the force of law, because it's not obvious. And it shouldn't be obvious to anybody that, because we are afraid we should institute large authoritarian government control. It, it feels like to me, instead of people praying to God, which is maybe what they would've done in the past, they're now praying to the state. And neither one of those answers is going to solve your problem necessarily. That's
Coronavirus Perspective [00:25:15] Great. And look at what has been done. And I mean, you have a lot of conspiracy theories. I am not one of them who think that a lot of this is orchestrated in an election year to damage Trump or to take down Trump because of course we've seen one thing after the other to try to do that. I really don't, I definitely think there are politicians in the media who are again, leveraging this to, to weaponize against Trump. But that's beside the point.
Vance Crowe [00:25:39] But people on the right, everybody is using the chaos as a ladder. I I don't, there's no like sanctity on the right more than the sanctity on the left, right? You you agree with that?
Coronavirus Perspective [00:25:48] No, except that you have had the left for more than three years. Do anything, make up any story, use any kind of crisis to try to sabotage and take down this precedent. It's unprecedented. And so it's hard for a lot of people to separate that. That is one thing that I, I am trying to do. And I, I don't think I've been promoting that because I really would rather look at the evidence. But back to your point about being worried about getting coronavirus or not, there are now some good studies coming out, and I, I think I sent it to you and we can link it whenever this comes out. Stanford doctors, scientists who are predicting, well, they want the antibody test, right? So that's gonna be the big, and Dr. Burke talked about this the other day. It's very important to get these antibody tests available to see who already has it, who had it. There are some estimates that as many as 6 million people in the United United States have had it, it, and have already recovered. If that is the case, that's really a good sign in terms of that there was a, an outbreak, which I suspected or at least produced data that shows that it might have our healthcare system for the most part absorbed it, that a lot of people had this, didn't even know about it or had it thought it was something else and recovered. So those are all really positive signs, right? But we're not allowed, again, we're not allowed to talk about that. We're not to ask to ask those questions because we are only focusing in on this very small slice. What the Stanford doctor had said is, we're not, that prevents us from accurately calculating the mortality rate from this because you're only looking at people who have tested positive and then the number of people who have died.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:27:31] It's not the peak number of people say since the middle of January through March 1st in the United States who had it, who recovered. And that has to be factored into calculating the final mortality rate. And so there's just huge gaps in what we know and what we don't know. That's the biggest thing, right? We can't take these huge unknowns and, and use that and apply it to these draconian and in some cases tyrannical government measures that will impact every single American. I mean, no one is going to escape this economic damage.
Vance Crowe [00:28:04] Yeah, and I'm, I've said this before, that many of the dictators that have happened in the modern age have all come about when there was a disease around and people said, what can we do to stop this? We need somebody, some, some father figure, some authoritarian to come in and clean it up. And frankly, if, if this disease gets as out of control as people are talking about, I'm pretty sure people will, will want an even stronger force of government than they have right now. And I don't know what any of that means. It, I'm just, I, for me, as a spectator of culture, the thing that has been so fascinating is I am on the same pendulum as society. Some days I wake up and I'm like, oh God, everything's burning down. And then there's other times when I'm like, oh, it's perfectly fine. Everybody just chill out for a little while. And, but in the meantime, laws are getting written, money is being printed, things are changing. And so it's good to be hearing lots of perspectives right now because whatever one you have in your brain, there's no way it's completely right.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:29:08] Dangerous precedents are being set. So what happens when this crops up again in October, November, December? Will these same measures be instituted again? Well, I mean, this is,
Vance Crowe [00:29:20] And what if you need them? And people don't listen to 'em now because they're so pissed about what happened before.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:29:25] And you hear a lot of people saying, I'm gonna do this one time, I'm gonna make these sacrifices. I'm gonna watch my job loss, I'm gonna watch my kids' job. I mean, they're gone, right? So, and that's not reflected in unemployment data, but we'll make these sacrifices for the common good to make sure vulnerable people are protected, the country's protected. We'll do it now, but it's going to be in it. And that is the danger. What if, what if this is needed? Again? So, and
Vance Crowe [00:29:54] I saw, I saw a Twitter video and who knows, it's completely unsubstantiated. I don't know if it's real or not, but, but it was in China where a group of people had their province locked down for 60 days and then they were finally let out to be able to get out of lockdown and go to work. They go across a bridge to get into another province where they can work. And those people have their border police there saying, no, you don't come in here. So if you start having the world, this country think there are some people that are diseased and some people that aren't, and some people that you, that's where conflict really starts happening and violence happens, which is why we need to talk about this instead of waiting until we get to the point of real conflict.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:30:35] Well, let's talk about that a little bit and how it applies in the United States, New York, the state of New York, and I have an article about this, did not prepare themselves for this crisis. They did not take any steps to prevent infected people from coming into their state. In fact, Andrew Cuomo, the governor who now is heralded as a big hero, actually bragged this week that the reason why New York has so many more cases than anywhere else is because they are the front door. They're the open door to the world. Now that's not smart policy, right? That's not really something you should brag about. More than half of the cases, the positive tests are in New York State. A quarter of our country's total positive tests are in New York City alone. He did not prepare for this, neither did Bill de Blassio. And so the question, now you have states like Florida and Texas, even Rhode Island, who is, you know, obviously run by a Democrat. They are telling New Yorkers, you're not welcome here. And if you come here, and I believe I saw something, New Jersey police are looking for license plates from New York and are going to now, I I just saw this today so I'm not confirming it, but stopping New Yorkers from leaving and going somewhere else. If you come to Florida or Texas and you're from New York or New Jersey, they want you to self quarantine for 14 days. So they put themselves in danger. They did not prepare for this crisis. In fact, they opened their doors to and possibly infected people from around the world bragged about it.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:32:06] And now you have New Yorkers who wanna get out of there, but you have states like Florida where there's no widespread cases of coronavirus at all, even with one of the highest population, vulnerable populations, older people, you don't have that at all. So you're having states now say, no, we, we don't want you to come here because we don't want you bringing your diseases here.
Vance Crowe [00:32:27] Yeah. I to your point, I, I watched a video and I'll link it the same way I'll link the video that you were talking about with the Stanford scientist, but I watched a video by a guy that does, it's called Three Blue One Brown, and it's all about statistics. And he runs these models and the, the model that was the scariest, because he's kind of showing how infection spread and the model that was the scariest was when you intermix all these communities and you keep having communities where there's one community that's a hotbed for outbreak and people are going and coming from there, that was the one that where, where it spread out the fastest and it it did all these weird things. So I'll, anyway, I'll link that. But to your point, if you then start having people on the lookout for the guy with the Brooklyn accent, that's not good. You know, like, that's, that's bad. That's, that's when people start thinking, I'm gonna go get justice where it wasn't gotten before.
Coronavirus Perspective [00:33:22] That's right. And so as much as pe well, I don't wanna say people aren't playing the blame game because a lot of people are playing the, playing the blame game against the president. I don't think everything that he's done has been perfect either. I think the biggest thing that he did was halt tra halt travel from China to the United States at the end of January. That probably was the best thing to do. But you have a state or city that did not prepare to not prevent its citizens from getting infected with this virus. And now, like I said, now they want to leave and go to other places. And you have people that have taken other precautionary me measures who are impacting their school children, their small businesses, et cetera, preventing tho asking them to take on the sacrifice. How can you then allow people who might be potentially infected into their state or their communities? That doesn't make sense either. And so, but you're not, I mean, so those questions, those criticisms are legitimate as is continues to unfold because you have huge parts of the country that aren't affected by this at all yet.
Vance Crowe [00:34:34] I, I think, I think we are in this amazing time right now because in past pandemics you couldn't spread people around as fast as you can and you can't spread ideas around. And so, and diseases move much faster, but so do ideas. Julie, I could clearly talk with you all day about this. I am so grateful that, that you have an opinion and you're not afraid to share it. I, I am personally quite concerned about the virus, but I am definitely interested in hearing somebody that says there's another way to look at this. So I am, I am deeply glad that you're in my network and that you're willing to say things that you believe, even though people don't like you for saying it,
Coronavirus Perspective [00:35:16] I'm used to it. But thank you. I'm so proud of you and all the work that you've been doing, we've been friends for, you know, what last several years. And I think that you are so open-minded and allowing these platforms are really important. So thank you for having me on.
Vance Crowe [00:35:32] Well be safe and enjoy your time with your family and use that as the gift that it is. So thank you Julie, so much. Thanks. Thanks Dan.
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