Concerned About Civil Liberties during Coronavirus: American Greatness Contributor Julie Kelly

About this episode

Conservative writer Julie Kelly joins Vance in the early days of Covid-19 lockdowns to lay out her data-driven skepticism of the official case-count picture, arguing CDC influenza-like-illness data suggests the virus was circulating in the US weeks before official detection and that the true peak may be earlier than assumed. The conversation ranges from why her former GMO-defense allies turned on her after 2016, to the civil-liberties shock of overnight stay-at-home orders, to the $2 trillion stimulus package and fears of a "great depression era economy," to interstate tension as states like Florida and Texas try to keep New Yorkers out. Both agree the deepest risk isn't the virus alone but the political opportunism and authoritarian reflex it's unleashing, closing on the idea that fast-moving pandemics now compete with fast-moving ideas and open discussion.

“I began to realize that I had really strong opinions about how things were going. And yet if somebody were to probe any one of those opinions... I wouldn't actually have knowledge of what's going on there... I have a generalized understanding, but not really. And I found myself getting in a position where I would hear somebody having a different opinion than me and get angry with them.”

“I watched a video by a guy that does statistics... the model that was the scariest was when you intermix all these communities and you keep having communities where there's one community that's a hotbed for outbreak and people are going and coming from there.”

“The day the order went into place, when I went to bed at night and I was free to leave my house, and then in the morning, I'm no longer allowed to do that, it really hit me. The first amendment is now gone... and it only really took about three weeks of fear to get most people to agree with it. And maybe that's the right decision, but maybe it's not.”

Key moments

• Vance recounts backlash from former allies threatening him ("the blood of the people that will die will be on your hands") for booking Julie, setting up the mob dynamics of pandemic discourse (mob, institutions).
• Julie explains how a former left-right alliance defending biotech/GMOs fractured after the 2016 election, turning erstwhile allies into critics.
• Julie details CDC influenza-like-illness data showing a spike in flu-like symptoms with negative flu tests in early February, suggesting Covid was already spreading before formal detection.
• Discussion of the $2 trillion stimulus bill, unemployment claims spiking past 3 million, and Julie's argument that lockdown severity may not be backed by adequate data (money, institutions).
• Vance describes the personal shock of an overnight stay-at-home order taking away his freedom to leave his house, framing it as the First Amendment effectively suspended by fear within three weeks (trust).
• Vance's line that historically, disease crises produce authoritarian father-figure leaders, and that fear now channels into "praying to the state" instead of God (trust, institutions).
• Julie cites early antibody-study estimates (up to 6 million Americans possibly already infected and recovered) as evidence the mortality rate calculation may be overstated due to data gaps.
• Discussion of interstate conflict — New York bragging about being "the front door" for infections while Florida, Texas, and New Jersey try to bar or quarantine New Yorkers.
• Vance references a Chinese province border-checkpoint story and a "Three Blue One Brown" statistical model showing intermixing communities spread infection fastest, warning this dynamic could produce mob-style scapegoating (mob, bubbles).

Notable quotes

“If you have her on there, the blood of the people that will die because of it will be on your hands.”

“The day the order went into place... I'm no longer allowed to do that, it really hit me. The first amendment is now gone... it only really took about three weeks of fear to get most people to agree with it.”

“Many of the dictators that have happened in the modern age have all come about when there was a disease around... instead of people praying to God, they're now praying to the state.”

“If you start having this country think there are some people that are diseased and some people that aren't... that's where conflict really starts happening and violence happens.”

Predictions made in this episode

• Data gaps and mishandled messaging around Covid will drive states into open conflict, with places like Florida, Texas, and New Jersey actively barring or quarantining residents of hard-hit states like New York.
• A second wave of Covid will hit later in the year (fall/winter), and it's an open question whether the public will comply with renewed lockdown measures after having already made sacrifices once.