A Commodity Broker on Market Psychology, Inflation Signals, and Why Puts Are Like Car Insurance

Vance Crowe [00:00:00] Greed

Tommy Grisafi [00:00:01] Will make people do things that they'll look back and be embarrassed years later. And so we've just seen that in soybeans. Soybeans had traded up over a dollar 50. And last week the phone was just ringing with people telling me how much, how beans are going to 12 and $13. And I said, why didn't you know this three weeks ago when they were on? So it's amazing how bullish people get at the top and how bearish people get at the bottom. I'm Bruce figure, a veterinarian living in Sylvia, Kansas, and you're listening to the Vance Crow podcast.

Vance Crowe [00:00:36] Welcome back to the podcast. I'm glad you're here. Today I'm doing with an interview with Tommy gfi, who is a commodity broker and trader, and just an interesting guy. I met him when I was doing a panel for Granular, which is the digital arm of Corteva. They're in really interesting group, and when Coronavirus hit, they put together a series of panels. And out of all the panelists that I spoke with, Tommy was the one that really pushed the envelope. He said some things that I think would make people a little bit uncomfortable, so I thought it'd be fun to have him on the podcast. You're gonna see that coming up here.

Tommy Grisafi [00:01:08] But

Vance Crowe [00:01:09] One thing I wanted to mention, you, I've been talking about the Articulate Ventures Network, and it's a group that's been growing, and I hope you feel like it's a place for you if you're the type of person that likes listening to these podcasts. One thing we're doing in the month of October is we're doing a sober October. So people in the network voted and they decided that this was something we wanted to do together as a group. So we're all deciding what are those things that hold us back and let's give them up for a month and see what it's like. So maybe it's booze, maybe it's marijuana, maybe it's Twitter, but it's things that people are giving up and they've got a community around them that they can talk about it and really try and discover more than it just being a sacrifice for your health. Try and figure out what this opens up that you maybe didn't think would open up, because it's something that's so such a part of your life. So if you're interested in doing kind of collective experiences like this with other people getting support, learning and growing, you might wanna check out network Articulate Ventures, and know that if you're the type of person that enjoys this podcast, you would be a person that would be welcomed in this community. I'm glad you're here. And now we're heading to this interview with Tommy gfi. Tommy gfi, welcome to the podcast.

Tommy Grisafi [00:02:23] Hi, Vance. Thanks for having me. I had to travel real far this morning and it looks like you traveled equally as far as so good

Vance Crowe [00:02:29] Morning. Yeah, these home offices have really changed the way people engage in how, you know, you can be with your family in one second and then contact Switch and all of a sudden be broadcasting out to thousands of people.

Tommy Grisafi [00:02:41] Yeah, hundreds of thousands. And who knows who's gonna see this The other day, I had a farmer call me, I did a meeting four years ago, and he said, do you remember me? I said, I remember doing the meeting, I don't remember you, sir. How can I help you? So something we did four years ago, someone just got ahold of me. I can't imagine with what's happening with the Digital revolution, which as you've gotten to know me better last few weeks, I, I may be a little late to the game, but I'm very aggressive once I get in it.

Vance Crowe [00:03:08] Well, you and I met because Granular, which is a software platform that helps farmers manage what they're working on, had

Tommy Grisafi [00:03:16] A panel,

Vance Crowe [00:03:17] And they were, they had people on like you that were kind of pushing the envelope. And I've ran a lot of panels, but that particular one, Beth Luter, connected us together. And I had no idea who you were, but you were one of the first guests that I've seen that has really pushed the envelope on what you're willing to say. And I found your takes to be interesting, a little bit unexpected, and I thought, man, I would love to have that guy on the podcast. So I'm ready to have a rip roaring conversation if you are

Tommy Grisafi [00:03:48] Absolutely. Von,

Vance Crowe [00:03:49] Just to

Tommy Grisafi [00:03:50] Let the listeners and watchers know, I have no

Vance Crowe [00:03:51] Clue what

Tommy Grisafi [00:03:52] You're gonna ask me. So this isn't, this isn't scripted, and we're not looking for a daytime Emmy here, but let's have a conversation. So

Vance Crowe [00:04:01] One of the things that you said that I thought was really interesting was your thoughts on inflation and when it was gonna start showing up in the economy. And I remember when $6 trillion was added to the economy, I was running around like, like the world was falling and I got called chicken little, but it does appear from what you're saying, that you think inflation is showing up in the world. Where do you think it's showing up first?

Tommy Grisafi [00:04:23] Well, the, the most obvious thing to me was lumber. I've only traded lumber a few times in my life, but a friend of mine pointed out to me, and it felt really high because it was down at two 50 and it went up to 500, and then it went up to a thousand. And I called a couple buddies in construction and I said, obviously you realize lumber's gone up. They said, not only has it gone up, it's triple, it's quadrupled. They went to Home Depot one day and they just didn't have a lot. And there's just people like me during the pandemic. I, I'm part of the problem. I, I redid my back deck. My, my back deck was older and I said, wow, I'm home and we're gonna spend a lot of time grilling and on the back deck. And so we bought about $1,500 worth of lumber, and then there was a couple thousand dollars in labor to just replace the boards. And, and that $1,500 worth of lumber would be four or $5,000. Now that would probably be enough to stop me from that project and maybe just stain the old deck, but I'd still have to go to Home Depot and buy a gallon of stains. So people are fixing up their homes, their yards, my home's been painted, my deck's been back fixed. I've never had the yard look so good. I should have bought Scott's Scott's stock, Scott's Miracle Grow. It's really wild to watch these stocks in Home Depot and Lowe's and just anything that has to do with fixing up your home and your environment and making the quality of where you live better. But that comes at a cost to other industries fans. What other

Vance Crowe [00:05:53] Industries are, are not able to, to charge higher prices. Now,

Tommy Grisafi [00:05:57] I would say the airlines would really have a hard time price gouging right now. So I, I woke up early this morning, I was watching CNBC and they had the head of the flight attendant union. And my wife Gina used to be a flight attendant for United Airlines. So I'm grateful when we first got married, we received our insurance from United Airlines for several years, and then she was actually flying the day of nine 11 and strange story, but you like to do podcasts and we have an hour to talk. My wife Gina used to fly that flight, that flight that went Boston to la She used to fly that flight for United Airlines, and she knew several of the gals on there. And so she got furloughed that, that that day was enough for her to stop working. And we started a family, but United Airlines paid our insurance for four years after that. And I'm grateful and I still fly 'em today except for I'm not flying. So there, there's an industry that's not coming back and what we thought or how we thought people's behavior would act during this pandemic, it's, it's, it's changing. My habits are changed and I imagine others are also.

Vance Crowe [00:07:00] So as a trader, how is it that you transcend just the average person watching what's going on out in the world and saying, oh, I think that's going up, so I'm gonna, I'm gonna buy it. What do you do that's different than just the, the regular guy that's seeing that, hey, a lot of people are gonna work on their deck, probably bought a, probably better buy lumber now.

Tommy Grisafi [00:07:19] Well, as a trader, I would say there's advantages and disadvantages because this has never happened. And so really, really, really smart people are blowing up, and I hate to say this, but I like when really smart people get it wrong. So not that I'm asking an engineer to build a, a bridge and it falls, but you didn't see a lot of people promoting negative $40 crude oil, but it went there. And so when smart people blow up, it creates opportunity, which is, in our industry, we call volatility no different than when your wife asks you to do something and you don't do it, she becomes volatile just like mine and I become volatile. Well, the markets became really, really, really volatile and that's where the opportunity is created. I always tell people, and I like to watch videos on Warren Buffett, buy things you use and like, I recently spent a ton of money on tech stuff and I've been looking at what's in, who made this ring light? Who, well, you know, the camera says Canon, who made this laptop? What parts are in this laptop? Oh, Nvidia made this card. And and there's all types of tech names. I mean, as you know, a a $50 webcam right now is going for $200 on the black market. So there's a tech shortage and the whole world went virtual and you, there'll be a trade, I can't predict when, but there'll be a trade when we start to leave virtual and go back to more selling the Nasdaq, buying the Dow Jones. That's been happening in the last few days.

Tommy Grisafi [00:08:51] Someone watching this weeks, months, years from now, that advice will be sold by the time they see it, it won't even be funny. So there's been a huge move in Tech tech's up about 30% on the year. Other stocks are actually down on the year still. So I, I'm not one everyone, I had all these people call me who work in all types of industries. A bodybuilder called me, said he has a Robin Hood account and he's gonna buy the airlines in the ship builders. I just kind of giggled. So when people who aren't involved in our industry start telling you what they're gonna buy, I kind of wonder where'd they get their skewed information from? Yeah, I remember. So

Vance Crowe [00:09:26] I I, I bought a house one time with a business partner and we renovated it and sold it. And the reason that we got out so fast when we were in it was going really well. We liked the renovations we were doing, but then we were at a party one time and somebody mentioned that house flipping was a really great way to make money and that they were also going to do it, and they thought that it was like an easy way to turn money. And so we came home from that party, my business partner and I, and we were like, we gotta get out and we gotta get out now. And, and lo and behold, I mean, we were a little bit early, maybe about a year and a half before the, the housing crisis really hit. But it was one of those things that you start realizing once the herd is all moving in a direction and you, and that information has flown from the early adopters out into the, the middle of the distribution time to get out.

Tommy Grisafi [00:10:16] Yeah, there's, there's a beginning, a middle and an end. And I don't like to own anything even

Vance Crowe [00:10:21] Towards

Tommy Grisafi [00:10:22] The upper part of the middle. I'm not the world's greatest trader speculator, I'm a I'm a commodity broker,

Vance Crowe [00:10:28] But I've

Tommy Grisafi [00:10:28] Been involved in markets for a long time, and there's a pattern, there's a psychology and greed will make people do things that they'll look back and be embarrassed years later. And so we've just seen that in soybeans. Soybeans had traded up over a dollar 50 and last week the phone was just ringing with people telling me how much, how beans are going to 12 and $13. And I said, why didn't you know this three weeks ago when they were on? Oh, it's amazing how bullish people get at the top and how bearish people get at the bottom. And I could almost predict at Vance when my customers, when the markets really, really, really had a bad run going down in grains, particularly working with farmers, there's a certain group of guys when they call, I just almost smile and go, wow, so-and-so waited for corn to drop a dollar and now he's selling. And he, he said, the market's going to zero. Well, that you usually wanna buy when people are doing that. And it, it, it sounds mean, but if you could learn more the psychology of the market and, and just be better at trying not to be emotional. And that's why there's so many algorithms. So really smart people decided that humans are too emotional and they let the computers drive the market. But I'll tell you one thing I learned during the pandemic, they'll shut those computers off when, when the, you know, what's hitting the fan, they shut those computers off. And there was a time for about a month, a month and a half that the only people, not the only, that's a, a bold statement, but some of the only people trading the markets were humans.

Tommy Grisafi [00:12:00] There was a time when only humans were making decisions because the markets were so volatile. And that was just an incredible, incredible moment in history.

Vance Crowe [00:12:09] Well, I was watching something to your earlier point about airlines is that the ticket prices are set by algorithms and it's based on how many people are coming and you know, it's trying to match supply and demand. And what happened was, as the, the

Tommy Grisafi [00:12:22] Number

Vance Crowe [00:12:23] Of people buying tickets went down, then the, all of the airlines started saying, okay, well we're gonna drop the price, and then less people were doing it. So they were like, oh, we gotta drop it even more. And that's what led to all these other like, things going on because you weren't selling seats. So then the algorithms that tie how many seats we're selling to how much fuel we need to buy start triggering, and that then leads into this weird cascade. And I think that the only way you could pull that out

Tommy Grisafi [00:12:49] Is because you can't predict

Vance Crowe [00:12:50] That's gonna happen until it happens. So you can't teach the algorithms what they should do in this weird, in this weird moment that's been unprecedented. And those algorithms have to learn from something. So to your point of taken 'em off of the, the computers and putting 'em on human beings

Tommy Grisafi [00:13:06] Yet. So I have a friend who works for a, a very successful black box company. You can call 'em black box gray box algorithms. Some of them have a, there's a computer running the program, but there's a human kind of babysitting the, the, the computer. And he flat out said, we had over 12 programs running and at peak craziness, they were all off. Which really alerted me that it's time for the humans to get in there and try to buy low and sell high. And there were days where the Dow Jones was down 1800, someone would think they're buying low and it would be down 2,400 and then later in the day it would only close down a couple hundred. So there was no buying the low and selling the high, but there was definitely everything in the middle. And my wife, Gina had asked me, we worked together, and she said, do you think the markets will, this was about six weeks before the pandemic, she said, do you think the markets will ever get busy again? Like they were in oh eight and 11 when you were, you know, if you're gonna associate making a lot of money with success, I would say I changed my opinion on what success is. But I said, no, I I, I could just tell you the markets will never get as volatile as they were in oh eight and 11. Fast forward six, eight weeks, and I'm, I look at her and I go, remember how I told you it would never get as busy as oh eight or 11? It's twice as busy, twice as crazy. And that's what I get for telling you never never's a long time, a long time.

Tommy Grisafi [00:14:40] And if you, if if you've lost someone you loved, you'd remember that, you know, when they die forever is a long time. And so how stupid of me, how arrogant, how what a cavalier attitude to tell my wife that it would never get busy again. I'm lucky I didn't get hurt during the pandemic financially instead of benefiting from it. So

Vance Crowe [00:14:59] You're a commodity broker, but it's not like you have grain bins sitting outside of your house where you're having people drop off soybeans and then take 'em somewhere else. So somebody from the outside could look in and say, Hey, that commodity broker, they're just a middleman and all they're doing is taking parts of the profit away from the farmer that just wants to sell into the market. What is your, what's your way that you think about this that's different than you being a middleman that's stealing from the, from the two, two ends? Well, Vance,

Tommy Grisafi [00:15:28] That's a great question. And everything, you said's true, they don't need us. And that doesn't bother me a lot. It doesn't even bother me a little. But the problem is the difference from where they're growing, their grain and all the tools that come together to sell that grain at a break even or a profit. There's a lot of pieces and components and moving parts that they may or may not understand or choose not to understand, or their educational level may not be, maybe they had a bad teacher in their father or grandfather or some bad habits. And so I, when I do meetings and I do meetings all over the country, I always tell people, I know you think brokers are bad, so if you're so scared of us, why don't you become one? Or why don't you learn what we do? Because the truth is the cost of entry into our business is almost free. So I can go all across America and say, it's free to do what we do. You don't need to pay all these large fees, you just need to know how to do what we do. And that right there is the part that's missing. And so there's academia, there's high school, there's college, there's ag colleges. I live part-time in North Dakota and I live two blocks away from the North Dakota State financial lab. It looks just like this, but spot for 20 people instead of two. And it's just amazing how many farmers I meet from across the state who just, they need some education. And as you know, if you think education's expensive, you should see how much money you could lose by not having it. And so I always challenge people to say, you don't need us, go do this yourself, but I bet you don't know how.

Tommy Grisafi [00:17:04] And if you wanna learn how the how and you wanna make your life easier, some people are willing to pay us very well to educate 'em and keep 'em out of trouble. And I look at myself for myself, for people that myself, more of a teacher. So for people that

Vance Crowe [00:17:16] Aren't involved in commodities at all, what are you doing? You know, all, all day long you're buying and selling, but you're buying from whom and selling to whom?

Tommy Grisafi [00:17:27] Well, let's go back. What am I doing all day? I would say, first of all, I'm, I'm listening and you need to be a good listener. And as I get older, I'm getting better when I'm not talking, of course. And so you need to identify what their problem or what their need is. And everyone has different needs. So I like to meet with a farmer and ask 'em what they want and maybe we don't do what they want. But my background, to go back a little bit, 30 years ago in 1990, I went down to the Chicago Board of Trade on a high school field trip. And I was not the best student to say the least, but I found something I loved and I was passionate about. I found the markets and that's why I actually have my home office in my office up in North Dakota look like the markets because I'm so familiar with this look and feel that it feels like home. And so the the ability to learn what I've learned and then go teach people, I like going far away from Chicago and educating people because I feel advanced. The further you get away from the city, the more need there is for education. And so first and foremost, we need to be better listeners and then we need to be teachers. And you ask what I do, we help farmers sell their grain. There's a difference between the price at the board of trade and their local market. And, and there's a difference if a farmer has a bin or doesn't have a bin. There's a difference if a farmer has four generations of family land and wealth and as Warren Buffet says is, is part of the ovarian lottery versus someone who's just getting into farming. And as you know, with working with the young millennials at, at your prior job, some of these people, the cost of entry's just outta control.

Tommy Grisafi [00:19:06] So just, just so I

Vance Crowe [00:19:08] Maybe go deeper into this, this particular part of the question,

Tommy Grisafi [00:19:11] When

Vance Crowe [00:19:12] You're describing this, you're saying there are farmers and they sell you their soybeans at a certain price so that then you go sell them somewhere else? No,

Tommy Grisafi [00:19:20] Absolutely. I genuinely

Vance Crowe [00:19:20] Don't understand how this works. Oh,

Tommy Grisafi [00:19:22] That's okay. So there's a market, you don't sell your soybeans to Tommy or, or advanced trading. You sell your soybeans to your local grain elevator, your end user, and, and so, but there's tools in between when you plant them, there's crop insurance as you're growing 'em, there's futures and options. And so what we particularly do is help issue what I call insurance policies, puts calls. Let me, let's go back a little bit. I, I'll, I'll if, if you don't mind me treating me like a little kid.

Vance Crowe [00:19:53] Yeah, yeah, no.

Tommy Grisafi [00:19:54] How old are you, Vance? I'm 38.

Vance Crowe [00:19:56] How old are you?

Tommy Grisafi [00:19:57] I am 48. So Vance, you, you have a vehicle, correct?

Vance Crowe [00:20:04] Sure, yeah.

Tommy Grisafi [00:20:05] Do you have insurance on it?

Vance Crowe [00:20:06] Oh yeah.

Tommy Grisafi [00:20:07] Are you hoping you wreck your vehicle so you can get the insurance?

Vance Crowe [00:20:10] No, I have it so that, that way I, if I, if something goes wrong, I'm covered, but I don't have it in order that I can use it. Right.

Tommy Grisafi [00:20:17] That's what a put option is. That's how we look at put options. At least I do, I don't, I don't get farmers involved in all these convoluted trades as if I'm a market wizard. When you buy a put option, you're setting a floor and, and that floor is a floor on 5,000 bushels of corn. So let's go back one more step. You ask what we do, what's the exchange do when you buy or sell a future? The only reason there's options is because there's futures. And when you buy or sell a future, you're in control of 5,000 bushels of corn, beans, wheat, maybe Minneapolis wheat. You can buy a, if, if you got off this conversation and said, Tommy, I think gold's going up, you could buy a gold future that's a hundred ounces of gold. Now the CME groups recently come out with all these mini contracts that are 10 ounces of gold and smaller contracts. So going back to you have a vehicle and you have insurance, that's a put. So Vance understands, puts, now I don't think you'll ever have to ask anyone again what a put is. A put is a floor that's traded at the CME group, which was called the Board of Trade when I was younger. And that put is used to set price. For example, right now we have a bunch of customers who are setting a floor for next year corn's had a heck of a rally. We're buying de de lingo for December of 21. Corn puts, we're buying nobe November 21, soybean puts. And we are setting

Vance Crowe [00:21:43] Floors. So I mean,

Tommy Grisafi [00:21:44] I, let me,

Vance Crowe [00:21:44] Let me break this down because I genuinely, this is a, an area that I have no understanding of. When you say I'm going out and buying a put, it means I've got, you know, 500 bushels of corn and the minimum price that I will have to pay for them is X or that's what I sell them to you for.

Tommy Grisafi [00:22:02] You will, you will buy the put, which is paying for premium and then you will have a floor set. So talking 5,000, you gotta be a bigger farmer than 500 bushels. Come on Vance. So say, say you have 10,000 bushels of corn, you're gonna grow and 5,000 bushels of beans. As the markets went up, I would have no problem suggesting that you buy a put or a floor on 10,000 bushels of corn and 5,000 bushels of beans. You're paying a price for that option. That's called the premium. There's a strike a strikes, the, the level at which we're insuring, for example, different people insure things at different values. If you own a home or a car or this or that, I don't wanna call it like a deductible, but in some ways you have, I have very high deductibles and if I was to wreck a vehicle, there'd be a much better chance that I would probably pay for a little bit of it outta my pocket before I turn it into insurance. Okay. But these puts are a floor, and so you pay a premium and it guarantees that you have from three 80 to zero. Well, as now we know from crude oil could be less than zero also, right?

Vance Crowe [00:23:15] And so if the price is above that, does that mean that I'm gonna get that price or no, I've already,

Tommy Grisafi [00:23:21] Okay, great question. So the reason I like puts, especially for our clients up north is how would you like something that you have a floor set a year, year and a half in advance or just weeks in advance and, and you have all the upside in the world. And so when you take what's happening and we start the conversation about inflation, if we're truly, truly going through an inflationary period, a puts a beautiful thing, a puts a really bullish stand. Now the farmer might come back six months or a year later and say, Hey, I invested $500 or a thousand dollars in a put option and it expired, worthless. I would have to come back with a rebuttal. But where did we help you sell your grain? They would come back then and say, if I knew the markets were gonna go up, I would've never have bought this put. And I would say, if I knew the markets are gonna go up, I wouldn't be your broker. I'd be your very rich trader friend. So one of the interesting things that

Vance Crowe [00:24:13] Happened during the granular panels is that every week I would ask people, what is your Peter Teel paradox? Which is you, you put forward an idea that on its face almost no one would agree with you, but by the time you explain it, people say, actually that's a really interesting idea. And the reason it's so difficult is that if you come out of the gate with your Peter Teal paradox and people already agree with you, then you've failed. But the, then if you say something that nobody agrees with, now you've gotta explain it.

Tommy Grisafi [00:24:43] You had

Vance Crowe [00:24:43] One that I think was really interesting and you've maybe thought of some since then, but what, what is your Peter Teel paradox that you brought up during the granular panel?

Tommy Grisafi [00:24:52] Was it, can you gimme a hint? Oh, it

Vance Crowe [00:24:55] Was, it was about the farmers being employed by the government.

Tommy Grisafi [00:25:01] Absolutely. So whether they chose it or not, the government has very much become involved in their business. And since we've since done that granular interview, Vance, the government as of a few days ago, thanks to some wonderful people we're involved with. And I'm not saying that sarcastically, the United States gover, United States government issued another 14 billion with a B dollars to the American farmer. And so I, when I think of the American farmer, I think of someone who's strong, educated, fiercely independent, has an, has an opinion and, and, and will fight you over it. And here they are taking massive amount of money from United States government. And if I was a farmer, I'd cash the check too. I'm not encouraging anyone to send it back. That's what the president does. He says this, this quarter, I'm sending my money to the Navy this quarter, I'm sending my money here. Don't do that, take the money. But the United States government has gotten very involved in agriculture. And I would say that they're so involved that when we look back several years from now, we've always known that the United States government will pay us to overproduce. And that's a long history. It could be a whole different podcast on why we're, we are where we are, but I think farmers actually think they're out here to farm and raise crops and make money. I'm like, you know, the, the United States government is paying you to overproduce crops to provide food security and produce high quality food, fuel and fiber.

Tommy Grisafi [00:26:38] And they want you to produce so much that when you produce too much, they'll pay you extra just so you don't lose money. And a large majority of agriculture right now, their profit, if there is such a thing in profit right now in agriculture, and there is for many, is coming from the subsidies from the United States government.

Vance Crowe [00:26:55] So

Tommy Grisafi [00:26:55] The other

Vance Crowe [00:26:55] Day I saw a tweet and it, I saw Jared McDaniel retweet it, and I'm, I'd be very, very interested in hearing your thoughts on, this might be a little bit controversial, but it was basically, so the farmers are selling huge amounts of commodities to the Chinese, but at prices that are not high enough to be profitable. So we have to have to subsidize farmers, which means we are in effect subsidizing food going to the Chinese people. What do you think of that, that perspective?

Tommy Grisafi [00:27:22] That that's true. It's not a new concept. I I don't think Jared reinvented the wheel. This goes back to Dr. Earl Butts. Do you know who Dr. Earl Butts is? Vance the

Vance Crowe [00:27:33] Name is familiar, but no, I don't know him.

Tommy Grisafi [00:27:35] Okay. Dr. Earl Butts was Ag secretary under Richard Nixon and a few other people. And Dr. Earl Butts set a standard and he said, we're gonna plant, we're gonna change the way agriculture is working. And back then the United States government was actually paying you not to plant. And Dr. Earl Butts said one quote that's very famous, he said, we want the American farmer to plant fence post fence post and, and give America its single greatest advantage, which is to have the most affordable high quality food in the world. And with that, that will leave America other money to use with discretionary items like large TVs and maybe a Yeti microphone and a a zoom light. Who knows? But when I look at what I spend in life food's barely on my radar. It it, it's not, there's so many other things that cost a lot of money than food. And when you look at the rest of the world, he wasn't talking about America, he was talking about America against the rest of the world. Kind of like how I would think China looks at things, China would have a 5,000 year plan and they say it's us against the world and we plan on winning. And some would say they actually are. So all Jared did was re quote something that happened about 40 years ago.

Vance Crowe [00:29:00] Yeah. That was actually put out there by a guy, Mr. Obvious four. So I don't want to take anything away from Mr. Obvious four that had put that out there, but it's, it's an

Tommy Grisafi [00:29:08] Interesting thing

Vance Crowe [00:29:08] That you bring up about our food policy because if you look at the way the Europeans did it, you know, people think that the European resistance to GMOs is ideological, but I think you can make a pretty strong case that this is the way that they subsidize their farmers by not having GMOs. They were less efficient, each farmer produced less meaning that then they, they needed more farmers to be producing the goods that they had. So as opposed to giving them cash in order to be able to do some of the innovations that they're doing or or to produce at the level, they went the opposite direction. And if you go to Europe, their food is more expensive than it is in the us Sure.

Tommy Grisafi [00:29:46] And also when you get off the airplane and you go into the first pub or restaurant, you gotta cut through about a, a a 10 foot ceiling of smoke. So here they're all, we only eat non GMO and there's smoking like it's 1920. I I mean there's all types of crazy and they got their own special type over there. So as you look out in the world and

Vance Crowe [00:30:05] You see an election coming up as, as a trader, as a broker, how do you think about what everybody anticipates is to be extreme volatility? And I know you make money during volatility, but I have

Tommy Grisafi [00:30:17] The opportunity to make money. That's true. I have the opportunity to make money. I don't need anyone calling me, telling me they wanna send me money because I'm willing to risk my own. But none beyond that. So what does it,

Vance Crowe [00:30:29] What does it look like in an election year? Like, like the one that we're in for, you know, the, what seems like almost inevitable volatility?

Tommy Grisafi [00:30:37] Well, it, it, it was interesting a few months ago I had watched the documentary about Ruth Ginsburg and I found it fascinating. And then I watched, there's one that was about the real gal and then there was one that was a movie and I liked them both. And I, I have two daughters and I had them watch 'em and I had my wife watch 'em. So I've watched these movies a few times and I actually learned a lot about Ruth and her family and her beliefs and how one woman can change the world. And so here we're coming into election and at four o'clock last Friday, they announced that she had passed away with 47 days coming in the election. When we look back at history that, that might be one of the most interesting things that happen. And and there's a lot of moving parts right now and there's a lot of people who are angry and confused and they don't quite know why they're angry or confused and maybe they're gonna blame the president. But I often tell people when they're mad at something, I just ask 'em if they have a washroom in their house and if they could just go in there and look in the mirror, and that'd probably be the person they're mad at the most is themselves for what they didn't do or the courage they didn't have to move forward or, or the bad idea they made. Everyone's looking for a scapegoat. And with social media, as everyone becomes a keyboard activist, it's really easy to say, I have a bunch of sarcasm. But then when you look back Vance, there's no solutions. And so my opinion, Tom Gree's opinion is I have one vote, but I also have another vote that I figured out recently Vance and what other vote, I'm gonna start interviewing you and ask you a question.

Tommy Grisafi [00:32:09] What other votes do we have as American consumers that don't just happen every four years or every two years?

Vance Crowe [00:32:15] Well, you, you have definitely two that I can think of right off the top, which is the way you spend your money and then the way you spend your attention and, and those two bingo things are the bingo are the way that you, yeah,

Tommy Grisafi [00:32:25] I vote every day with my wallet. I vote every day with my wallet. It's not the world's biggest wallet. If I stood on it, I wouldn't be that much taller. But I do have disposable income and so does my wife. And so do my kids, so do my parents. And if, if I'm going to a local establishment and they have a opinion that's so different than mine, I guarantee you I won't go there. It's okay to have your opinion, it just doesn't mean I have to patronize you and your business. And I, I have friends of all types. I've met so many interesting people at the Chicago Board of Trade. I love to travel. When I was younger, I mentioned earlier my wife Gino's flight attendant, she took me to Hong Kong. I've been to Germany, I I've been a few places. I I leave my basement once in a while, but everyone has one vote. But we get to vote every day with our wallet. And then you mention another one.

Vance Crowe [00:33:14] Yeah, your attention is the, is people always talking about, you know, I hate what the news has to say and I just, I it's all toxic. And as, as the moment you stop watching, the moment they stop being able to monetize your attention, which is what's going on. Like I think there's a lot deeper belief that the, the ideological opinions of these different channels are anything other than they figured out how to get the largest swath of attention for the lowest amount of effort. And partisanship is a great way to do it. You know, I'm on red team, I'm on blue team, and you get people to, to focus on just those two things, then you start making it so that's all they pay attention to. They don't even realize that the world is far more colorful than that. But as long as they keep you focused on those two things, then they get to keep selling your attention to advertisers. And so probably a a, a vote that is just as big as where you spend your money is where you spend your attention.

Tommy Grisafi [00:34:10] Sure. So I, I haven't been happy with how some things are going, but I was able to pick up the phone call DirecTV and, and, and cancel 'em. I'm able to control what content I put in front of myself and maybe suggest to my family that someone says, you wanna go to Bdubs and watch the game. I say, absolutely not. I'd like to go here and do this. And so I have disconnected myself from

Vance Crowe [00:34:37] Professional

Tommy Grisafi [00:34:38] Sports. I still, I've thrown myself more into high school sports and learning who's the football player or going and seeing boys tennis or girls tennis here or watching my kids play sports. And, and we are voting with their wallets. We are voting with our attention. And, and although people watch Hollywood,

Vance Crowe [00:34:57] I really like that idea. I like that idea about going and finding out what's going on in your high school. You know, when you're in high school or you go to college, you think like, oh, I can't wait till I go to see the real world, which is somewhere out there with the professionals or the people that are at the top. But like you will, you will never be close enough to impact that that person, whether you show up in the stands to cheer for them, isn't gonna make them run any faster. But if you go to a high school game, volleyball, football, basketball, and you're there contributing your cheers, that ends up mattering and altering the outcome of, of, of the future. I

Tommy Grisafi [00:35:30] I

Vance Crowe [00:35:30] Never,

Tommy Grisafi [00:35:31] I never had that thought

Vance Crowe [00:35:32] Before. That's really interesting.

Tommy Grisafi [00:35:34] Well,

Vance Crowe [00:35:35] One time when I

Tommy Grisafi [00:35:35] Was doing a speech, someone asked me if I farm and I said, yeah, I raised one crop, I raised two little girls. And that's the most important crop you ever raise in the world. And so maybe I don't farm, maybe I don't own a John Deere tractor, but the number one way to influence the world is to take care of your own garden. And when my garden doesn't have any more weeds in advance, I'll come over to your house and start worrying about yours. Yeah, that's, I I

Vance Crowe [00:36:03] Recently had the experience of getting more involved in my homeowner's association. And I can remember when I first got into this neighborhood, I thought, man, the homeowner's association, what a waste of time. We just go there and we talk about things and so little progress gets made. And then in talking to one of my good friends, a guy named Lyle Benjamin, it dawned on me, there is actually no group of people that influences my life, the life of my wife and my daughter more day in and day out than the people in my homeowners association. And I am a fool to think that that's a waste of time. And that if I have any complaints at all about the way the neighborhood is going, they,

Tommy Grisafi [00:36:42] There's

Vance Crowe [00:36:43] Nowhere to lodge them other than what am I doing to help the homeowners association succeed, how to be a better neighbor. And I think

Tommy Grisafi [00:36:50] That

Vance Crowe [00:36:51] This is a part of culture that I hope Coronavirus brings back in a major way because I don't know about where you're at, but where I'm at, we went from having almost no walkers in the neighborhood to almost every single house here walks and we see each other and we encounter each other so much more. And that's the kinda community that, that stitches together beyond these political divides of one vote that happens once every four years. And

Tommy Grisafi [00:37:15] It's a great point. And you know, I live here in Valparaiso,

Vance Crowe [00:37:18] Indiana, and I told you

Tommy Grisafi [00:37:19] I split my time between Valparaiso and North Dakota. Gina and I are waiting for our kids to graduate high school, and we may, we may mix it up a little bit, maybe go somewhere warmer, and then obviously I'll always be involved with the, the frigid temperatures of North Dakota. But we, we have met more people. So we've been walking, Gina and I recently became much more active in riding our bicycles a few years ago. We may laugh, but we ran the marathon together, Chicago Marathon. Now, unfortunately I didn't win, but many people say, you didn't run the marathon. I said, not only did I run it two years ago, that was the 10th one I've ran. And so it's fun to do things that other people can't do. Anyone could lip off and, and, and be a sarcastic prick, but only less than 1% of the United States populations ever run a marathon. And I can say I've run 'em 10 times. The first nine was about 70 pounds lighter, the last one. But I finished and it's about finishing the race Vance about finishing the race of life. Yeah, it's, it's an interesting

Vance Crowe [00:38:23] Thing. There's a guy named Scott Galloway who talks about, for every hour of sports you watch, you should play two hours of sports. And you think, like, imagine how different the world would be if for every hour that somebody watched sports or anything, not that it's anything wrong with watching sports, but for every hour you spend consuming what somebody else is doing, you have put two hours of, of effort into it. It's, it's a, not only would it change your own physical, you know, your own physical health and the way you deal with the world, but running a marathon, you encounter so many other people. If you encounter another person that's run a marathon or done something really difficult, you now have a pattern language to discuss how hard it was, how you overcame it, injuries you had, how it felt when you were successful, the drinks that you get after a big race. I mean, all of those things stitch together the community and they're orders of magnitude more valuable than the time we spend on Twitter. Which you recently left, didn't you?

Tommy Grisafi [00:39:21] Yeah, about a year and a half ago I left Twitter. Obviously Twitter's a public domain. I have it up right behind me, but anyone could just log on to twitter.com and watched streams, that's free. But I do not communicate on Twitter anymore. And you and I had spoke about this privately, but we could talk about it right now. I personally think the move is into private, into private communication. If I do have a talent, a talent at all,

Vance Crowe [00:39:44] Why

Tommy Grisafi [00:39:45] Would I wanna share it with the whole world? I'm not retired, I'm not a philanthropist, I'm not Bill Gates and I say, Warren Buffett gave me his fortune and and my wife and I are gonna go, you know, reinvent the toilet like he's doing or, or fix, you know, come up with a vaccine for coronavirus. So I'm not at that level in my career where I could just go be, Hey, I've learned something, I spent 30 years involved in markets and now I want to give it

Vance Crowe [00:40:10] Away for free.

Tommy Grisafi [00:40:11] Which

Vance Crowe [00:40:12] Brings

Tommy Grisafi [00:40:12] Me to the point, if everyone's so

Vance Crowe [00:40:14] Smart,

Tommy Grisafi [00:40:15] Why are they on there telling you stuff? I mean, if you really knew something that could help you benefit financially, why would you tell everyone? Yeah, I think that I I, the the biggest

Vance Crowe [00:40:27] Value I get out of Twitter is that I end up crossing paths with people that I would not cross paths with otherwise, but the amount of energy that it is costing me, or the amount of brain space that it's costing me, I think is too high. And like you said, we started discussing that there's going to be a move where people move away from these tragedy of the commons where there is some organization, Twitter or Facebook or something that is mediating the interactions between people. And instead people may keep that in the digital domain. Like I use a thing called Mighty Networks to have my, to have my network, which I have called the Articulate Ventures Network. And people go there and

Tommy Grisafi [00:41:05] They can have conversations

Vance Crowe [00:41:06] Where they don't have to worry about if somebody just decides that they wanna cruise by and make a comment about it, you know, doing a drive by, it doesn't happen anymore. So you start seeing a richness of discussion, not because everybody agrees, but because people can put ideas out into the world and

Tommy Grisafi [00:41:22] Somebody can show why that

Vance Crowe [00:41:24] Might not be correct, thinking

Tommy Grisafi [00:41:25] Without

Vance Crowe [00:41:26] Trying to obliterate them and make them, you know, gone from the face of the earth, which is what so much of, of the public open access social media is. And that's because Twitter and Facebook are selling your

Tommy Grisafi [00:41:39] Attention.

Vance Crowe [00:41:40] They are, they are giving you this free thing because they're selling it to advertisers. And so for them, the the war there, the thing that grabs your emotion and rips you back into there is, is a way for them to make money.

Tommy Grisafi [00:41:52] I haven't watched the advance, but several people have suggested there's this new document on Netflix and it was suggested for me to watch it and I probably will this weekend. Is it called the, the Social Dilemma? Maybe? I think

Vance Crowe [00:42:04] Yeah, the social dilemma. I heard that too. Yeah. Yeah.

Tommy Grisafi [00:42:06] So we'll, we'll watch that and see. But it, it's interesting. We, we've lost, one of the things that's helped me be successful in business is the physicalness. The actually going and visiting and spending time with the farmers. The digital you see behind me, this is just to not have to jump on an airplane. If there's a group of farmers who would like to pay me to speak in front of 'em, I will. But I don't know that I wanna drive to Chicago, jump on a plane, fly to a city, rent a vehicle, and then go speak to 'em for something I could have just done well here in the comfort of my own office. So, but the real Tom Gfi likes to go visit people and likes people and, and some people like me, not everyone of good thing. I'm not running for local office. I don't, or any office, I don't know that I'd win, but that's okay. But that connection and, and that's probably gonna be the side effects that would happen from Corona. If you talk to someone who says 200,000 people died. I said, yep, that's right. And 50,000 people in America commit suicide and we could talk, and I don't think you want to, nor do I about a much darker part of society that's happening every day. And, and there's a lot of things that people have done and there's a lot of companies that have a major motivation to put a product in front of you. And, and Coronavirus was a perfect reason to maybe without mentioning names or what product or what habit, we all have them, we all have vices, is that the pandemic was a perfect opportunity to lose your discipline.

Tommy Grisafi [00:43:40] And I feel as a society, we've lost our discipline. I know I have, I'm getting it back. It it's a lot harder to fight back as you get older, whether it be physically or mentally, emotionally, financially, financially you can, you'd be surprised what you can get done quickly, but emotionally and physically, that takes time.

Vance Crowe [00:43:59] Yeah, I, when coronavirus hit, I was, so, it

Tommy Grisafi [00:44:02] Was the first

Vance Crowe [00:44:03] Time in my life where I was genuinely worried about my health, not for me. So my wife was pregnant and all of a sudden I was like, if Coronavirus takes me down, I'm now going to leave a wife and a child out into the abyss. So that fear was a definite motivator for me. I started doing the podcast as often as I could to find people that could teach me about it. And I was up every day working out because I was like, this thing is not gonna take me down. And, and I, but I agree with you about the discipline on other things because I, from what I've heard, there was a giant aluminum shortage and it's because so many people were buying beer and and sodas for their house that, that, that they weren't buying out of pin glasses in bars. So now there was a giant run on aluminum and they couldn't keep up with it. And I've seen that show up in my own stores where they don't have any aluminum cans. And that's to your point about the, the discipline.

Tommy Grisafi [00:45:00] Let me ask you this, do you have a, a large life insurance policy for your wife and your baby? I don't sell life insurance, but I'm gonna get back to those puts. I mean, don't you think Vance should have a big put under 'em, maybe a million, $2 million policy? I'm willing to bet without you telling me you do not have over a million dollars worth of life insurance.

Vance Crowe [00:45:18] I think that you would be surprised how cautious I am. Tell

Tommy Grisafi [00:45:22] I like your style kid. I like it. Well, good, good. So that's, that's insurance, right? I, I have a, a lot of life insurance and I, maybe Gina wants the life insurance, I'm not sure, but I, I still eat her cooking and stuff. But one of the things I was fortunate

Vance Crowe [00:45:40] Enough to do, both

Tommy Grisafi [00:45:41] Her and I is right before the pandemic about two months before we both received a, a, another big group of, of life insurance. And we're not planning on dying, we're not hoping to die. But it's just a shame that there's policies out there, which is just a put on yourself. Right? That's, that's what the point I wanted to make you say. You don't understand puts and calls, you do have life insurance. Right. That's

Vance Crowe [00:46:02] Clever, that's a clever way to describe it.

Tommy Grisafi [00:46:05] Vance, you have a put on yourself, correct?

Vance Crowe [00:46:07] Yeah, that's right. I do. I never thought of it that way. You know, I I would've not been as clean or as like, forward thinking about it except for my wife is a former aerospace engineer. And when you get into University

Tommy Grisafi [00:46:21] Of Notre Dame, right?

Vance Crowe [00:46:22] Yeah, that's right. Yeah. And so she's, she's interesting because she talks about how everything has to be in engineering.

Tommy Grisafi [00:46:30] Everything

Vance Crowe [00:46:30] Is within tolerances, right? There's, you cannot eliminate risk. You can only say, what are we willing to do on that trade off? And when you start looking at, you know, planes or cars or insurance, it's all about numbers. And by having her be able to make it clear that I am not special just because the only voice I can hear in the world, I, I in my head is mine. That doesn't mean that I transcend numbers. And I think that that's, putting a put on yourself is, is a great way to put it because it starts saying like, well, don't think of it as your mortality, which is more difficult to look at. Look at it as a way to put a baseline on your, on your future earnings so that your family can get access to it in the future. I'd never thought of it that way. Well,

Tommy Grisafi [00:47:13] Maybe I helped you and what

Vance Crowe [00:47:15] Your wife and

Tommy Grisafi [00:47:16] You are touching on is actuary science. And it's just the numbers, it's crunching the numbers. And when we first started the podcast, I talk about one of the marvels of trading is that when really, really, really smart people blow up, they lose their mind. And so I doubt, and I know your wife's very intelligent and you have a beautiful family. I doubt your wife would be a good trader because part of trading is losing often and eliminating your risk and taking losses. But as traders we lose so much. And farmers are incredible risk takers and they lose so much controlled by Mother nature. And so the fact I have to run around the country and explain to people why I wanna set a floor and buy a put and I hope the market explodes and I hope you lose your money on your put. And they don't understand. This is frustrating. But here in just this little podcast, I've explained to you already that you have a put on Vance, but you're very bullish Vance. You're, you're not a seller. You wouldn't short yourself, right? And so you have a call, let's go to the other side of the spectrum. You have a call on Vance, and if I could buy calls in Vance Crow, I would, I would own a couple. And during the pandemic, I decided I wanted to own a bunch of Tommy GFI calls. And I would say the, I'm doing well, the market's going up on Tommy gfi. And maybe that sounds arrogant or have a cavalier attitude, but who else am I gonna invest in? Why would I invest in Snapchat? Why would I, maybe it's a great investment, I don't know, but the number one person to invest in is yourself. And maybe that's a message we can get across to people.

Tommy Grisafi [00:48:48] Yeah. So

Vance Crowe [00:48:49] I grew up, my father was a stockbroker, so I have a general understanding of, of the market, and that was always a big part of it. And the thing that my father taught us from the very earliest age was the value of compounding interest. And that's one of those things that it's, when you first learn it, you're like, okay, I get it.

Tommy Grisafi [00:49:06] And

Vance Crowe [00:49:07] Then when you see into the beauty of compounding, it's almost like staring into the universe or something like it, it's this awesome thing. And when you're describing about investing in yourself, like

Tommy Grisafi [00:49:20] The

Vance Crowe [00:49:20] Earlier you come to the conclusion that you are the driver of your destiny, the faster you start earning compounding interest on it. And then there is some element of risk in that to, to your point about being a, being a trader. Like you do have to say, well, if I, if I bet it on me, then there's a chance I may lose it all or I may lose a huge chunk of it. But there, there is something important about coming up with the understanding that, that your future is so dependent on you that you should be putting, I, I like that future's on yourself, buying them.

Tommy Grisafi [00:49:54] So now you understand options. Correct, Vance. Yeah.

Vance Crowe [00:49:57] I'm not prepared to go trade 'em, but I do, I think I have a better understanding of them.

Tommy Grisafi [00:50:01] I'm gonna send you a bill. I'm gonna send you a bill. Tommy

Vance Crowe [00:50:05] Gfi, this is a lot of fun. I really appreciate you taking time outta your day. I know every moment is valuable to you and so I'm, I'm grateful you spent some of 'em with us. Thanks

Tommy Grisafi [00:50:14] Fans. My pleasure.