Nat Geo Explorer RETURNS; Spencer Wells talks Coronavirus, mutations and Economics

About this episode

Vance's second conversation with Spencer Wells, a population geneticist and National Geographic Explorer speaking from Lombok, Indonesia during Ramadan, escalates the stakes from their earlier "Black Plague" comparison. Wells doubles down: the data has confirmed his early fears, and he's frustrated that mainstream US outlets (NYT, WSJ) aren't conveying the global picture the way Singapore's Straits Times does. He walks through why the virus is proving so disruptive despite a comparatively low mortality rate relative to Ebola or the Black Plague — arguing the social and economic destruction, driven by uncertainty and heterogeneous outcomes, is unprecedented in modern memory. He introduces a risk-stratification strategy: lock down the over-60 and immunocompromised population indefinitely while letting younger, healthier people return to work — a proposal Vance immediately flags as economically and socially devastating on its own terms. The conversation covers viral mutation and the scale of unknown genetic variation as infections spread, a comparison of global outcomes (with poorer, tropical nations seemingly fafing better than rich northern ones, possibly due to immune conditioning or vitamin D/UV exposure), and a candid discussion of America's political leadership failures relative to the scale of the crisis, with Wells — despite an extensive multi-generational American family lineage he details at length — expressing sharp disappointment in current leadership. The two clash directly over universal basic income, which Wells raises as a possible necessity and Vance rejects as a slide toward socialism/communism given his fresh knowledge of the Soviet Union's economic failures (which Wells, having lived there, shares). They close discussing farmers as the ultimate resilience class ("revenge of the peasants") and Wells's belief that decisions should be driven by farmers' judgment rather than stock-market participants.

Key moments

• **[00:01:24–00:03:34]** Wells reaffirms and intensifies his earlier "Black Plague" comparison, framing US media as insular relative to international outlets like Singapore's Straits Times.
• **[00:13:32–00:16:29]** Explicit clarification that Wells does NOT expect Black-Plague-level mortality (~50%), but argues the social/economic disruption is unprecedented regardless — because fear and heterogeneity of outcomes, not death toll alone, drive the destruction.
• **[00:18:49–00:20:32]** Wells proposes an age-based risk-stratification reopening strategy (lock down over-60s indefinitely, release younger cohorts); Vance immediately challenges the economic feasibility.
• **[00:30:00–00:34:13]** UBI debate — Wells floats it as a possible necessity ("$2,000 a month so people don't freak out"); Vance calls it "the scariest thing you could say to me... the obvious step towards communism"; Wells (having lived in the former USSR) agrees UBI isn't right for the US given its "young, striving" cultural character, though might be for aging societies like Europe/Japan.
• **[00:37:19–00:39:15]** Wells details his multi-generational American family lineage (Wells Fargo, American Express, West Point, Nazi-era combat, Pebble Beach founding) as a preface to sharply criticizing current US political leadership.
• **[00:42:16–00:44:11]** Discussion pivots to a real anecdote about a hog trucker fired for refusing to keep hauling — introduced by Vance as evidence the "white swan" (not black swan) framing extends into direct agricultural collapse consequences (mass animal culling).
• **[00:44:11–00:45:40]** Wells's "revenge of the peasants" framing: those who can grow/raise their own food will be the truly wealthy class in a supply-chain collapse.
• **[00:49:27–00:50:31]** Closing "two weeks" prediction: Wells worries the US will make reopening decisions "based on the wrong inputs" (stock market pressure rather than farmer/on-the-ground judgment).

Notable quotes

“Coming out of that [Black Plague], we have the Renaissance. And so this is my hope with what's going on now.”

“Maybe it's better to pay everybody $2,000 a month just so they can buy food and not fucking freak out.”

“Farmers are more important than stockbrokers in the world, in the grand scheme of things... let the farmers make decisions.”