ATR Raining money on farmers, Fertilizer Drone Spies from China, a new tariff war? Machinery Pete

About this episode

In this Ag Tribes Report episode, Vance Crowe hosts Greg Peterson, AKA "Machinery Pete," founder of a marketplace and data service tracking used farm equipment auction values for 35 years. They open with lawmakers reportedly considering a Farm Aid rider attached to a farm bill extension rather than passing a full farm bill, sending direct payments to farmers amid a growing agricultural trade deficit ($30B in 2024, projected $42.5B in 2025); Peterson notes public sentiment toward farm support remains largely sympathetic despite growing disconnection between consumers and agriculture. They discuss looming US tariffs on Chinese EVs (100%), solar cells (50%), and steel/aluminum (25%), with Peterson recalling how Canada's retaliatory tariffs prompted China to simply stop buying Canadian canola, and criticizing corporate short-termism that trades away long-term technological advantage (Vance draws a parallel to Monsanto's forced technology handover during the Bayer merger) for near-term Chinese market access. The conversation turns to concerns over DJI agricultural drones potentially being banned over national security fears that they could relay field data to China or be weaponized, drawing an unsettling comparison to the exploding-pager attacks in Lebanon; Peterson, a longtime drone advocate for equipment marketing, argues drones are indispensable tools (both for video marketing single high-value machines and for spraying efficiency) as long as data isn't being misused. The Bitcoin land price report pegs southeast Minnesota farmland at roughly $12,000/acre (~0.19 BTC), and Peterson explains the current "biggest drop ever" narrative in used equipment values is overstated relative to the historically larger 2014-15 downturn — a disconnect he attributes to farmers anchoring against still-inflated new equipment list prices rather than historical dealer-lot gaps, compounded by a much faster equipment turnover rate today due to dealer consolidation and pandemic-driven online bidding adoption. He closes noting he's steered clear of social-media "hot takes" and posted daily without chasing engagement since 2009.

“Lawmakers are considering attaching a package of farm income support to a farm bill extension that could get enacted at the end of the year... how can we make sure that farmers are staying afloat when there has been a trade deficit of 30 billion this year?”

“China's government has used unfair non-market practices, force technology transfer and intellectual property theft... starting on I believe September 27th, they are planning on putting a 100% tariff on EVs, 50% on solar cells, 25% on steel, aluminum and other key metals.”

“China was pretty very transparent. They were like, okay, you can do business here, but we get access to your intel... why would you do business that way?”

Key moments

• early ~5-10%: Farm Aid rider proposal attached to farm bill extension instead of full farm bill passage (money, institutions).
• early ~15-25%: Looming US tariffs on Chinese EVs/solar/steel; Canada's canola market crash precedent from retaliatory tariffs (money, institutions).
• middle ~30-40%: Corporate short-termism criticized; Monsanto/Bayer merger technology handover parallel (trust, money).
• middle ~45-55%: DJI agricultural drone security concerns compared to exploding pager attacks (institutions, trust).
• late ~60-70%: Bitcoin land price report (~0.19 BTC/acre in Minnesota); used equipment "biggest drop ever" narrative debunked via 2014-15 comparison and faster market turnover (craft, money).