Europe's Industrial Suicide and China's Deflationary Crisis with Manufacturing CEO
About this episode
An Ag Tribes Report episode built around a single deep-dive conversation with NNZP, an anonymous (camera-obscured for business reasons) manufacturing CEO and farm kid from central Illinois with 20+ years of global manufacturing experience in Europe and China since the late 1990s. Vance scraps his planned news script to dig into NNZP's real-time analysis: Europe's self-inflicted industrial decline (nuclear plant closures, green-agenda energy costs, ceding manufacturing to China), China's deflationary "involution" driven by a command economy chasing GDP/employment targets rather than market-clearing profit, and the blurring line between US "capitalism" and Chinese "communism" as both economies increasingly rely on state intervention (subsidies, bridge loans, socialized losses). They discuss supply-chain fragility (chips, rare earths, pharma inputs), NNZP's investment thesis around hard assets and the "debasement trade" (currency devaluation favoring gold/land/Bitcoin over cash), a "Peter Thiel paradox" tangent on solar potentially being the highest-value use for some marginal Illinois farmland, and a closing discussion of energy policy — NNZP's prediction that nuclear power will arrive first for data centers, not "the proletariat." NNZP closes on cautious optimism: confident in America's long-run resilience but expecting a difficult decade-plus ahead, framed via Strauss & Howe's "Fourth Turning."
“Europe is trying to commit suicide on a business front... the green agenda and the dismantling of the nuclear plants... Europe is de industrializing very rapidly... doubling down on purchasing stuff in China.”
“The Debasement trade is the trade of the rest of my life... if you had $31,000 in 1963... that would be worth $385,000 today [via CPI], but $3.5 million in gold.”
“I'm an incredible optimist on America and on the future, but I think we have some very difficult times in the next decade or two... I read Strauss-Howe's fourth turning back in 2008 and it gave me a framework.”
Key moments
- Vance scraps his planned regenerative-ag-bill script to focus entirely on NNZP's economic analysis, signaling unusually high editorial confidence in the guest's insight.
- NNZP's diagnosis of European deindustrialization — nuclear closures, green-agenda costs, and rising dependence on Chinese component imports (e.g., BYD entering via Spain/Hungary).
- The "involution" concept — China's command economy building industrial overcapacity (steel, autos) disconnected from market demand because provincial officials are promoted on GDP/employment growth, not profitability.
- Vance's pointed reframing: "China is a communist country with capitalist leanings, and the United States is a capitalist country using communist strategies" — both economies converging toward state-managed outcomes.
- NNZP's "debasement trade" thesis, with the concrete $31K-in-1963 CPI-vs-gold purchasing power comparison, arguing inflation/debasement will accelerate rather than reverse.
- The Peter Thiel paradox — NNZP's contrarian view that, for certain marginal Illinois farmland, solar may be a higher-value use than continued row-crop production.
- Energy policy discussion — NNZP's prediction that nuclear power revival will serve AI data centers before ordinary consumers, illustrated with a "the boat, the plane" parable.
- Closing outlook — NNZP's calibrated optimism about America's long-term trajectory paired with an explicit expectation of "very difficult times in the next decade or two," referencing Strauss & Howe's Fourth Turning framework.
Notable quotes
“If you had $31,000 in 1963... that would be worth $385,000 today using CPI, but $3.5 million in gold.”
“The capacity is disconnected from demand, it's all about employment... the emperor is strong, but he is far away.”
“I've said for three or four years that we'll get nuclear energy for data centers, not for the proletariat.”
Predictions made in this episode
- NNZP predicts that nuclear power revival in the US will be deployed for AI data centers before it reaches ordinary residential consumers ("we'll get nuclear energy for data centers, not for the proletariat"). This is a clear, falsifiable forward-looking claim with an implicit multi-year timeframe — warrants a prediction note.
Full transcript
Read the full transcript (word-for-word, with timestamps)
Vance Crowe [00:00:33] The Ag Tribes report is brought to you by Legacy Interviews, a video service that captures people as they really are, so the future knows who they really were. Here's Legacy Interviews guests, Darryl and Jill stamp on the Joy of filming their legacy interview. What do you think you'll tell your kids about the experience? Oh, I'm gonna thank 'em a lot. I realize this is more for them and their kids and their kids than it is us, the grandkids, right? Don't know these stories. I can't wait to, for us all to get together and see it. This went better than I thought it was gonna Time does go fast though. It's What time is it? It's almost three o'clock. No way. Yes. God, you talked so much. I know. Welcome to the Ag Tribes report, a breakdown of the top stories affecting the culture of agriculture with your host, Vance Crowe. The report begins in 3, 2, 1. Let's begin. Welcome to the Ag Tribes report. I'm your host, Vance Crowe. Each week I bring on a new co-host that represents one of the many tribes that make up US and Canadian agriculture. This week we are doing something a little bit different. I was on the phone with NNZP and he had some absolutely fascinating things to say about what was going on in the world economy. And while I had a script written up that we could talk about the regenerative AG bill, where they're pumping $700 million in and the $12 billion of funds that are going to farmers as a bridge payment and all these other things going on, I thought, you know what?
Vance Crowe [00:02:15] The real depth of knowledge will come when I talk to NNZP about the stuff that we were talking about in the car today. So welcome, NNZP.
Guest [00:02:25] How are you doing? Vance? Good to be on again.
Vance Crowe [00:02:28] Yeah, I'm, I'm doing well. I, I don't ordinarily call audibles like this, but I I, the news this week was so prolific, there was so much going on. I was like, oh, this is gonna be an easy week to write up. But our conversation about what's going on in Europe and China was so fascinating to me that I thought, Hey, let's just talk about those subjects and let somebody else cover the news this week. And so why don't we dive into it as, as just a way for people to have an understanding of kind of, of your background and where you're coming from as we talk about the world economy. Give a little background on yourself.
Guest [00:03:05] Sure. I'm a farm kid from central Illinois. I'm an engineer with a business degree later. I started in automotive manufacturing in 1995, and my first trip abroad was to Germany. Actually, when we, when we were talking about this, I thought about it, and it was in 1997 and my first trip to China was in 20 2002. I have had joint ventures, Woolie's, other dealings in China. I bought and sold businesses in China and, and also done a lot of manufacturing ship parts both to and from China and to and from Europe. So I've run companies for the last 20 years as CEO, which is astounding to me. And I can't believe that it's been 20 years, but this year makes it 20 years. And I'm not that old. I'm 57, I'll be 57 here shortly. So hopefully I've got another 10 years maybe in me to continue doing this. But this is probably one of the most interesting times that I've seen in manufacturing and in global business as we navigate our way through what has been happening since 2015 and supply chain breakdowns.
Vance Crowe [00:04:25] Well, I think it's worth telling everybody that your camera is not accidentally pointed at your keyboard. It is because you wanna keep your anonymity because you are doing business all over the world and some of your takes are not so pleasant for some of the other governments around the world.
Guest [00:04:43] Yeah, I would agree with that. And I have lots of conversations with other CEOs and other manufacturing people around the world, and some people agree with me and some people don't. So, and it's always interesting. I love it when people tell me about the Canadian manufacturing people and how they disagree with me. Well, I know a lot of them, and a lot of them don't disagree with me when they talk to me in person. So it's interesting, a lot of the Europeans, when I talk to them in private, they have their own misgivings. Certainly China is a, is a hard place to get a real read because of, it's a massive surveillance state and people are concerned about what they say even in private. So it's hard to get a real read. But I've had friends there for years and years and years that if we're in the right place, they'll tell me what they really think. I think they'll, what they really think. So I get an interesting perspective on global business and global manufacturing.
Vance Crowe [00:05:44] Well, let's jump right into it. You know, our conversation as I was driving into work was started off with what's going on in Europe and how their manufacturing is coming. So lay the land. What is going on there for manufacturing in Europe?
Guest [00:05:57] Boy, it sure seems like Europe is trying to commit suicide on a business front. And they've done so under multiple different methods. The first one was the green agenda and the de dismantling of the nuclear plants. Now, I was told on X that nobody misses those nuclear plans, but boy, that's not the truth. When you look at power prices and things like that, and, and I always say available, abundant, affordable energy is the key to everything. And it's not the case in Europe. And so Europe is de industrializing very rapidly. They are trying to do some things now that I see differently, but they're also buying more and more from China. They are, they're doubling down on, on purchasing stuff in China thinking that low cost is going to save them. And I just don't see that, how that's gonna work.
Vance Crowe [00:06:56] Now, when you say purchasing stuff from China, you mean like their toasters in their washing machines or You mean,
Guest [00:07:02] I mean mean
Vance Crowe [00:07:02] Parts, okay. I
Guest [00:07:03] Mean like big, big global brand names buying lots of component parts from Asia coming in on the train. That that, that starts in China and comes across, comes across and deposits itself in Rotterdam. A lot of parts come in and they are having a hard time. I mean, their, their auto industry is stuck. The, there are countries that are letting in the Chinese brands, BYD especially, there's a few others that have gly have made the leap into either Spain or Hungary. So they're coming in through the edges and the EU doesn't really have the power to stop a lot of that. And they're very disorganized as far as that goes. So it's,
Vance Crowe [00:07:55] But what's the problem? I mean, I thought we lived in a, the world is flat and it's a globalized economy, and we wanna have as much trade as we can. You make guns, I make butter, we make trade,
Guest [00:08:07] Man, did I ever tell you that I knew one of the guys in the, in the world is flat. The one of the chapters is a guy that I know personally, and he doesn't have the business anymore. That was written about there. He lost it in a bankruptcy. It's fascinating. And so I know a lot about the world is flat. I read it, I believed it when I was younger. But you know, the reality is, is that China has enough capacity and has a mercantilist economy to the point where they can undercut anything. So if it, it, it can happen to anyone anytime, blue collar, white collar, manufacturing jobs, anything, you know, can, can happen with what they're doing. And it's intentional and they're undercutting stuff intentionally. And they're basically destroying the West's ability to manufacture, which will lead right into our defense industries. And where that goes from there, I have no idea, but certainly not being able to make, make airplanes, air magnets for airplanes, which we've had the issue with in the past is, is a real issue. Right? So what are we gonna do? We see a lot of people, we see the US doing it a little differently. You may like it, you may hate it, but certainly we're, we're ramping up manufacturing as we go and in certain industries and trying to save jobs comes down to jobs, to well-paying jobs and what's, what's gonna happen there, right?
Vance Crowe [00:09:44] Yeah. So when you think about Europe moving in, getting more of, more of their stuff from China, Germany for example. Where is this gonna show up? Is this just that they're going to become beholden to the, to the people that produce the parts? Why is this a problem?
Guest [00:10:01] I was told by a well-placed person in China that at some point you would see German automotive plants being sold to japane, to, to Chinese auto manufacturers, to manufacturer. And I think we've seen one headline that says they may lease one to them big. These are big companies that, that are very, have been very successful and they are struggling to, with output and struggling with cost. And they're struggling with competition with these, especially with electrification and with general cost.
Vance Crowe [00:10:42] And so talk to me about China. 'cause what you told me this morning kind of shocked me that they're going through a deflationary cycle. I almost don't believe in deflation.
Guest [00:10:52] Yeah, I mean it's certainly deflationary in China. It's, it's well known in China that they're going through a deflationary period, they call it involution. And there's actually been, she has actually given some speeches on stopping involution in the automotive industry, which means they have too much capacities. Prices are going down, which is the definition of deflation, right? We have wages that are going down. We have massive youth unemployment in China. House prices have been collapsing, you know, have collapsed and are still continuing on a downward trend even in tier one cities. So they have a lot of issues. They have built up a, a capacity base that is just eating itself. And it's, and and what they wanna do with that is they want to export that to the rest of the world. And Europe is letting them, we are not, I know that people are struggling with some of this stuff and how does that affect our inflation? And it will, but it also is, is I think, an existential threat to our way of life.
Vance Crowe [00:12:05] So let me see if I understand. In China, they, they created so much production capability. They could produce cars, they could produce microchips, they could produce all kinds of, of things. And now, because Europe and the United States, maybe as a result of the tariffs, they're not buying as much. And so now you have this, all this capacity, but people aren't buying it.
Guest [00:12:29] It's not necessarily to do with the fact that we're not taking it anymore. What you have to realize is it's a co it's a command economy, right? And the signal, the, the demand signal and the supply signal do not, do not meet. So they, they build capacity because it's GDP, right? They need GDP growth, they need five to 7% GDP growth to stay in power. So they're gonna do that somehow. So they build capacity and where that capacity goes in the end, they don't worry about that until they got a problem. And now they have a problem. I mean, they've, they, steel is a great industry. They just defined a company for, for expanding capacity when they were not allowed to, right? I mean, so Steel has, they could probably make five times the steel that they can use in China, you know, so the capacity is disconnected from demand, it's all about employment. And when you think about what their goal is, it's employment. And so they invest and, and then you have a decentralized model. It's centralized and decentralized. So there's a central government, but you know, the, the, the joke or the parable is that, you know, the emperor strong, but he is far away, right? And the province is how they get promoted. How they get promoted in the CCP is they do well in a province.
Guest [00:14:03] So if you're a provincial head, you want your province to show economic growth and employment and, and, and forward movement. And that's how you get promoted into higher cadres or to a better province, right? So the provinces compete against each other. And so even though there may be an excess of steel capacity, there might be a province that still builds a steel mill because they need, they need the GDP, right? So it's, it's disconnected from, from the market signals.
Vance Crowe [00:14:38] And you look at China, you're seeing something different than what he is being, I think propagandized to us all the time, you know, China is rising, they're getting so big, they're so powerful. Everything we need to do is oriented around making sure China doesn't overtake us. Where is that not accurate?
Guest [00:14:55] So I didn't say it wasn't accurate. Remember we discussed, we discussed two things can be true at the same time, China's got a a unbelievable manufacturing capability and they have overtaken us in many, many, many things, right? And if the yuan was accurately valued, they would probably be equal in size to our economy and, and in the US so in North America. So they, they have, but they have created such massive capacity, they need somewhere for it to go. And so what they're doing inside literally is they're driving their prices down to the point where you can't profit and, and profit is not automotive in a lot of these companies. They're, again, it's a communist country. It's a, it's a totalitarian system with its command economy. So profit is not necessarily their end goal, which is, you know, which, you know, the United States is an economic union, right? It's, it's about profit. And that's the way it was, you know, built up. And it's the way it's been since day one. And we, we worry about
Vance Crowe [00:16:09] Profit, is it, I don't know man, we we're handing out a $12 billion, you know, bridge loan where the first words outta their mouths when they announce this loan is there's more money coming and we're gonna give you $12 billion. It seems to me that China is a communist country with ch capitalist leanings. And the United States is a capitalist country that's using communist strategies in order to be able to keep the aristocracy owning the land.
Guest [00:16:36] Well, we certainly are moving closer together, aren't we? You know, and I think we were moving a lot closer together. Like China's kind of reversed some course and they've centralized a lot more in the last, since she came into power. And I just posted a, on a interesting podcast to listen to about kind of how he changed the game on Pology. But yeah, I mean, we are certainly moving towards a more socialist schema and have been since FDR really, but it's really taken off in the last 25 years, I would say, as we've moved a lot of manufacturing, a lot of high, high value jobs out of the central category. And we've turned ourselves kind of in a mon into a mono cropp in the farming world. And, and, and all the time for reasons you've talked about, you know, and other people have talked about about insurance and about, you know, crop insurance and about other things and keeping things going. But yeah, there's, I I would say two things can be this, you know, true at the same time, again, you know, we are, we do care about the profit motive, but we certainly do a lot of support. I think 2009 was a major breakpoint for our capitalist society, and we've certainly started moving towards more crony capitalism or socialistic capitalism as we go along where we socialize losses and privatize gains.
Vance Crowe [00:18:11] So one of the things that was kicked around in the news regarding China and the US was yeah, we got 'em to buy our soybeans, but we did it by allowing them to manufacture or, or use the chips that were coming out of, of, I don't, was it just out of Nvidia or Taiwan? What do you think of that deal? Yeah,
Guest [00:18:31] Most of 'em will be made in t most of 'em will be made in Taiwan. We have no Nvidia, you know. Yeah. I mean, so what do I make of that? How much of that soybean crop has been sold? How many days we got left to meet that hurdle?
Vance Crowe [00:18:46] Yeah, I mean they, I think they've even moved it back to be like, well, we didn't mean December 31st. We met February 1st. Interesting.
Guest [00:18:53] Right? Yeah. I mean, I think, I think the recent Nvidia announcement about the N 200 chips, I think there was something in the supply chain that was gonna break. And I think that the reason why those chips were let loose is because we needed help. And I, I, I think that, listen, my my thesis is very similar to another first song, two other named Chris who has his own substack now and, and talks about this, but supply chain's been breaking down. We've had to patch them together. There have been a lot of deals made and, and I think this in 200 idiot chip thing is a, is another deal to keep supply chains flawing.
Vance Crowe [00:19:40] And what does that mean if supply chains break? I mean, I can remember during COVID we saw him break a little bit, you know, like, yeah. But we were still able to go to the store and get whatever we want. When you say supply chain's breaking, what does that mean?
Guest [00:19:52] Well, it means that we have a, we're we're not able to get what we need to build what we want. It takes a hundred percent of the parts to build a car, right? So you need all of them. And, and some of those are simple chips. We talked about that last time about how China controls the large majority to simple chips. There's been a lot of articles in the Wall Street Journal about the pharmaceutical basics, you know, the things that go into pharmaceuticals and how much they, they control of that market today. There's some chemicals, there's rare earth, there's other things that we need to keep supply chains going. And it, it may be something you don't even know about that's in your iPhone or in your, you know, or in something you buy that you put on your John Deere tractor or I put in my truck or in my business, right? That we don't even think about it. It's somewhere buried on a pri printed circuit board and we can't get it. Right. So there's a number of those things, and it takes all of them to make something work until you can design it out, if you can design it out.
Vance Crowe [00:21:02] So as you look at your unique view of the world, which I think is running counter to what a lot of people think, or at least the way the news is putting it out there, what is the port in this storm? Do you, you know, invest into US companies? Do you invest into international ETFs? You buy gold, you buy houses, you buy Bitcoin, what do you do?
Guest [00:21:22] Well, I've said for a long time that I think hard assets are, are the trade and have been the trade for a while. I, I told you that I put a quite a bit of money in gold miners some time ago. It's been a pretty good trade. We, we own farmland, we own property, we own businesses that generate money in current, current dollars, right? That have some pricing power. But in general, you know, I think it's a hard asset world and I think I've said multiple times on Twitter, the Debasement trade is the trade of the rest of my life, I believe. Right.
Vance Crowe [00:22:01] Say more about that. What do you mean by, first of all, just maybe even give me a, a scope of what is the Debasement trade and then why do you think that's going on for the rest of your 10 years? No, I'm kidding. So
Guest [00:22:12] My dad, my dad gave me this, you know, framework a long time ago. And he, his dad invested in war bonds during, during World War II and other people bought land. And he goes, the people bought land did much better than the people bought war bonds, let's put it that way, right? And he said, that's because governments borrowing dollars and paying dollar rats, right? They, they base the currency and we've seen that debasement, I mean, Michael Green, he goes by prof plum on Twitter, made a big, big stink glass a couple weeks ago about his 140 k is now the new poverty line, which I disagree with his number, but he, his, his premise is probably right that the 31,000, you know, that's a wow. You know, and he talked about the, the, the, you know, what has happened And I posted something that basically, you know, if, if you had $31,000 in 1963 when that poverty line was set, I believe it was 63, it might be 61 that would be worth $385,000 today in, if you just use the, the, the barometer of inflation, right? CPI change, you just put, pop it into the calculator. You say you got $31,000 in in 1963, what is it worth today or what would it be worth? What would the same purchasing power be today to have the same purchasing power's, $385,000, three $87,000.
Guest [00:23:46] If you pop it in gold, it's 3.5 million. 'cause gold was, gold was 20, $35 an ounce fixed in 63 until we closed the gold window. Right Now it's $4,000. Now you can buy 885 ounces of gold with $31,000 at $35 an ounce. Right? So, you know, that's the debasement trade. We've lived it, but it's been slow. Right. I think that the, I think inflation picks up from here and the debasement trade picks up from here because it has to, and,
Vance Crowe [00:24:20] But
Guest [00:24:20] There is a counterpoint to this and you know, it is the boomers and aging boomers and them spending less. And that would say that maybe it's deflationary. I'm gonna say that it's not because the government can't live in a deflationary system. The federal banking system cannot live with falling assets. It needs ever increasing assets to support loans, asset values to support loans. If assets start falling and you owe more on something, you know, it doesn't work. Fractional banking system doesn't work in that case.
Vance Crowe [00:24:59] You know, you say about the boomers spending less, I mean, they kind of are, but when I talk to boomers, you know, people I love and care about, I, you know, I want them to succeed. Sounds like they are going to medical care and not inexpensive medical care all the time, but they're not picking up that tab. Yeah, it's Medicare, it's the, the amount that they are spending must be increasing wildly, but it's not at at their dollars. It's it's through the, the socialized medicine.
Guest [00:25:28] Correct. Yeah. And, and what is healthcare the number, the number one employer in 37 states or something like that? I mean,
Vance Crowe [00:25:38] Yeah, it's crazy. And we, right before the show aired and I was like, you know, just ripping apart the normal ag tribes report I, I threw out there, if you had a Peter Teel paradox and you kind of chuckled and said, yeah, I've got one you won't agree with. So I'm dying to hear it. What is one thing you believe that your tribe does not agree with you on?
Guest [00:25:58] Not all my tribe, but a lot of them I would say, and it's about ag and, and it's about solar and, and some other things. And I think sometimes solar might be the highest use purpose for ag land,
Vance Crowe [00:26:12] Ag land in Illinois where the, where the soil is so good.
Guest [00:26:16] Well, there's a lot of it that's been been put in ag land and you know, if, if prices are gonna stay where they're at, then maybe unless some other land is gonna come outta production.
Vance Crowe [00:26:28] Okay. So maybe say more about this. 'cause you think like, you know, that high quality farmland is certainly, you must be distinguishing between, you know, really high productive land and Well, I, listen
Guest [00:26:39] Dance, I grew up in the world of arrogant fans, so I'm not the, you know, the typical Illinois I state farmer, you know, around Bloomington or something, right? Or in the, in the high or north of Peoria in the high or down in around Springfield where we're irrigated sand farmers. So high quality land is, is different around us than, than it is other places. But, you know, I think that it's, it's troubling that that, that, you know, farmers are incredible and the amount of productivity that, that we've gained through a agriculture over time is unbelievable. And I never bet against the American farmer, but do we have too much corn? Do we have too much soy today? I mean, we didn't think so in 19, remember farm ditch to ditch, right? 1970s. Do we, do we need to farm ditch to ditch today? Is there a lot of land that is now marginal land, highly erodible land out west that's, that's in corn. You gotta convince somebody to take some of it out unless you're gonna find a new market for corn and it can't all be ethanol. I mean, what's, what's, what's electric cars gonna do the ethanol?
Vance Crowe [00:27:54] Well, I mean like, i, I personally think the way that we've made that demand go up is because we've subsidized it through, you know, mandating ethanol in
Guest [00:28:05] Gasoline.
Vance Crowe [00:28:05] I, yeah. And so, you know, if we're doing all things being equal, I think the market can't find what its most valuable purposes is because we've
Guest [00:28:13] Lost its signal. Yes.
Vance Crowe [00:28:15] Right? And, and so to me, like the, the loss of signal does not equal solar. When you're talking about solar, are you saying solar that is propped up by government spending for, hey, we want to have a larger mix of, of solar energy, so we're gonna add tax subsidies and, and an actual like yeah, writing the check to people,
Guest [00:28:37] We talked this earlier about this earlier. Is there anything that's not propped up by government spending
Vance Crowe [00:28:43] Bitcoin? I mean,
Guest [00:28:45] Yes, So, so I mean, the answer is, I mean, I think I'm an all the above energy guy. I think energy is the key to everything and needs to be made, abundant, available, and affordable. And our lack of nuclear projects really bothers me. And, you know, but our, I think it should be everything, right? We should do, we should be doing all of the above. So I think, so solar is good in some cases what we need baseline power. That baseline power should probably be nuclear. We invented the molten salt reactors in the sixties. We have yet to deploy them. Chime is gonna deploy one before we, we do, by the way, they're working on it right now and they have 15 nuclear projects in the works being built. I mean, actually dirt moving and we have zero, right? So, you know, we need to do wind, we need to do solar, we need to do, you know, they're, they're building coal plants, you know, we're, we're not building coal plants,
Vance Crowe [00:29:53] You
Guest [00:29:54] Know,
Vance Crowe [00:29:54] Okay. I mean, I, I am with you. Like let's get as much energy as we can it, I struggle to imagine that the best place to do that is in, if I, in an I state in a, where you could be growing something with valuable soil.
Guest [00:30:08] Again, again, my part of the I state's a little different than your part of the I state where you grew up, right? So you should come visit us one time and I'll show you the, the farms that we're talking about and we can talk about the economics of those farms, right? But certainly this year was not a big winner for us, let's put it that way, right? And if it was a big winner for anybody, I would be highly surprised. But some good ground guys probably didn't have to put on nearly as much MPK and, and and have a lower input cost than we do on, on our, on our aggregate sand.
Vance Crowe [00:30:45] So what do you think happens with our energy grid? Are we going to be able to break through all the bureaucracy and, and get nuclear? Are you gonna see, you know, in your lifetime a nuclear plant be up and running in the US a new one?
Guest [00:31:00] I've, I've said for, for three or four years that we'll get nuclear energy for data centers, not for the pearls, not for the proletariat, right? So I'm joking a little bit about, you know, Russia, but you know, it's not gonna come for, for regular people, it's gonna come for billionaires. And they're doing that, by the way. I mean, they're trying to resurrect nuclear plants like three mile island to supply data centers, right?
Vance Crowe [00:31:32] Yeah. I mean, and I'm all for it. Like create as much energy as you possibly can. I'm totally with you on that. The, the, yeah.
Guest [00:31:39] And,
Vance Crowe [00:31:39] And nuclear is the only way that you're going to get a high enough concentration of energy in order to be able to really sup supply the grid with what's needed. We are going to
Guest [00:31:50] Need infinitely
Vance Crowe [00:31:51] More. It's,
Guest [00:31:51] It's like that, it's like the guy on the island, right? And you know, he, he keeps praying for God to send him, send him, you know, somebody to save him, right? And, and God's gonna save me. And he sends a boat and he's like, no, no, God's gonna save me. And he sends a plane. No, no, God's gonna save me. And he dies and he goes up to heaven, why didn't you save me? He goes, I sent a boat, I sent a plane, I sent, you know, all this stuff. I mean, literally God gave us rocks that will heat water. It's pretty crazy when you think about it.
Vance Crowe [00:32:24] So as you look out at the world, I find you to be an incredibly optimistic person. When you and I are talking on the phone, but some of the things we're talking about, not so optimistic. What are you, are you feeling like the world that your, your children, children will inherit, will be different, will be better than yours?
Guest [00:32:42] I'm an incredible optimist on America and on the future, but I think we have some very difficult times in the next decade or two that we gotta get through. There are a lot of imbalances that have built up in the system. We have not had a business cycle that hasn't been shortened by government money, sugar highs for since probably 99, right? So the system has not been able to clear and we have a lot of imbalances in the system. We have a lot, we have an aging population, we have a, a changing population and we have a lot of, we have some real divisions in the country. You know, I I I've, I read how in Strass fourth, turning back in 2008 and it gave me a framework of which to think about what will happen. So I was not, I was not unprepared, I was prepared, I would should say for some of what I've seen, but not everything. And I still think we've got another decade or more to go through before we get to a point where we have, we know what the future looks like. But you know, the, I'm incredibly optimistic about what people can do once they decide they need to do it.
Vance Crowe [00:34:02] Well that's as good a place as any as I to end that I think we could possibly find. Thank you so much for coming on. If people wanted to engage with you, hear more about your ideas, where would you send them?
Guest [00:34:14] I'm at Twitter at n nz p what is it, 1730 I think.
Vance Crowe [00:34:20] I think so.
Guest [00:34:21] Yeah, I think so. And that's, that's the place where I generally have conversations. I hardly ever mute anybody or, or block anybody. I have great conversations. Sometimes they start off pretty rough, but we generally reach a point of where, you know, i, I just, I, I like hearing other opinions, right? So it's, it's great to hear other opinions and that's where I do it.
Vance Crowe [00:34:45] Well thank you so much for, for coming on and we'll have you on again soon. Alright, thank All right, that's gonna do it for the Ag Tribes report this week. If you have been thinking about what is a gift that I could give someone that has everything, then I would offer up the Legacy Interviews. This is where I sit down with your loved ones to record them telling their life stories, to talk about all of the things that their life was like when they were young, what they experienced, what they went through, what they really found was the great meaning in their lives. And they often tell great stories about their children, about some of the things that happened to them. It is a wonderful experience. And not only that, you will have a recording that you can show your kids and your grandkids and they will know where their people came from. If you're interested in booking a legacy interview, go to Legacy Interviews dot com. There you can find a contact page, we can talk about your loved one and we can figure out whether doing an interview here, in person or online doing a single interview or doing it over a whole day is the right fit for you. Thank you so much for joining me here on Legacy Interviews. And as always, feel free to disagree. So the conference organizer has a terrible challenge. The audience can pull out their phone and pull up anyone talking about anything. How do you find somebody that is both going to reach every single person in that audience and yet still have that spike of energy where people are electrified 'cause they're hearing about things that they aren't used to or that make them think about things in a different way?
Vance Crowe [00:36:25] The most important question that I ask a conference organizer is, what is it that you want people to feel? What emotion do you want them to have? When we leave this talk? What's their disposition? How are they gonna interact with one another? What does this prompt in the people that are there? It's not just the information, what you're giving them is energy, a reason to be there in that moment. Now they take that energy and they share it amongst each other. For me, the best speech is when people walk away being like, I now have a tangible skill. But they didn't necessarily readily accept it and they had to grapple with it. They set their phone down, they leaned forward, they said, how do I feel about this? And through that, an energy is created that is not about the speaker, it's about the person listening to the speech. It's far beyond motivation. It's actually giving people skills.
Bring this conversation to your organization. Vance Crowe speaks to conferences, boards, and leadership teams on economic uncertainty and communication and negotiation.
Book Vance to speak