Ag Tribes Report: w/ @dfaber84 Oddly positive farmers, Dairyman want more $ and Heifer Shortages

About this episode

Vance Crowe hosts dairy farmer/comedian Dwayne Faber for the Ag Tribes Report, opening with a Purdue farmer-sentiment survey showing improving optimism despite falling corn/soy prices — Faber is skeptical, noting sentiment diverges wildly by sector (dairy and cattle strong, but potatoes/hops/apples/cherries mirroring grain weakness). They dig into the Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) modernization fight, explaining the arcane system where processors pay farmers differently depending on end product (cheese vs. whey vs. skim), and the "make allowance" battle over how much processors can deduct to cover their rising costs. The heifer-shortage story leads to a detailed explanation of dairy-to-beef crossbreeding economics (a beef-cross calf fetching $675 vs. $414 for a pure dairy calf) and how heifer prices spiking from $1,500 to $3,800 is now reversing the trend back toward dairy replacements via sexed semen. They close news with Starlink's potential to leapfrog costly rural fiber buildout. In the Peter Thiel Paradox segment, Faber delivers an unusually blunt admission that agriculture's free-market self-image is largely fiction — subsidies function as a rural "make-work program" and national-security hedge against relying on foreign food supply, comparing US ag subsidies to China's dairy subsidization. Vance extends this into his recurring thesis that money-printing and low rates fuel land-buying by institutional players (BlackRock, hedge funds), pricing out generational farm transfer, and pitches Bitcoin as an alternative store of value that could divert capital away from farmland speculation. Faber names Peter Zeihan as his worthy adversary, criticizing Zeihan's drift toward "America is best, everyone else collapses" punditry and overt political commentary since gaining prominence.

“It's certainly hard to make the case where you go from $5 corn down to high three eighties, now where anybody would be optimistic if they are bullish on grain along the grain market or a corn and soybean farmer.”

“So this is incredibly complicated... very early on they established a little bit of government controls and regulation to make sure farmers were paid fairly for their milk.”

“As free market capitalists... for much of agriculture we get subsidized heavily and those subsidies are essentially a make work program for rural America... we value small family farms and we want to incentivize them to stay in business.”

Key moments

• early ~5-15%: Purdue sentiment survey vs. sector-by-sector reality — dairy/cattle strong, potatoes/hops/tree fruit weak, mirroring grain struggles (money).
• middle ~30-45%: Federal Milk Marketing Order modernization explainer — processor "make allowance" fight, regional pricing regulation history rooted in protecting farmers from milk's short shelf life (institutions, money).
• middle ~50-65%: Heifer shortage and beef-cross economics — $414 dairy calf vs. $675 beef-cross calf, heifer price swing from $1,500 to $3,800 reversing breeding incentives (craft, money).
• late ~75-85%: Peter Thiel Paradox — Faber's admission that ag subsidies contradict the free-market self-image, framed as a national-security hedge against BlackRock/Bill Gates land consolidation and foreign food dependency (legacy, institutions).
• late ~85-95%: Worthy adversary — Faber critiques Peter Zeihan's drift toward political punditry and "inverse Jim Cramer" predictive unreliability (trust).